干旱气象 ›› 2023, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 423-433.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-03-0423

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

山西省雷暴大风的统计特征及概念模型

李强1(), 苗爱梅2(), 王洪霞2, 张丽梅3   

  1. 1.山西省气象灾害防御技术中心,山西 太原 030032
    2.山西省气象台,山西 太原 030006
    3.山西工商学院,山西 太原 030051
  • 收稿日期:2022-05-26 修回日期:2022-08-18 出版日期:2023-06-30 发布日期:2023-07-02
  • 通讯作者: 苗爱梅
  • 作者简介:李强(1965—),男,高级工程师,主要从事气象灾害防御技术研究。E-mail: 389051810 @qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    山西省重点研发计划项目(201603D321125);山西省气象局重点项目(SXJZCGYY202201)

Statistical characteristics and conceptual models of thunderstorm gales in Shanxi Province

LI Qiang1(), MIAO Aimei2(), WANG Hongxia2, ZHANG Limei3   

  1. 1. Shanxi Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center, Taiyuan 030032, China
    2. Shanxi Meteorological Observatory, Taiyuan 030006, China
    3. Shanxi Business College, Taiyuan 030051, China
  • Received:2022-05-26 Revised:2022-08-18 Online:2023-06-30 Published:2023-07-02
  • Contact: MIAO Aimei

摘要:

利用山西省近40 a雷暴大风资料和近18 a的常规和新型监测资料,采用聚类分析、中尺度天气分析等方法,对山西雷暴大风的时空分布特征及天气型、物理量阈值进行研究并建立了概念模型。结果表明:山西年均雷暴大风日数具有北部多、南部少,山区多、盆地少,西部山区多于东部山区的地域分布特征;极端雷暴大风主要出现在山西的北部和吕梁山区;西部山区年雷暴大风日数为增多趋势,其他区域为无变化和减少趋势。雷暴大风集中发生在5—8月,占全年雷暴大风总日数的75%;日内雷暴大风出现最多的时次为16:00和21:00(北京时)。山西雷暴大风主要包括前倾槽、后倾槽、横槽、副热带高压与低空暖式切变线、副热带高压与低空冷式切变线、西北气流等6种流型配置;各型K指数阈值4—5月明显低于6—9月,而850 hPa与500 hPa温差4—5月却明显高于6—9月;各型在满足各月特征物理量阈值时均可触发山西强雷暴大风,而前倾槽型触发极端雷暴大风的百分比最大。同一时期,后倾槽、副热带高压与低空暖式和冷式切变线型的K指数阈值明显高于前倾槽和西北气流型,而前倾槽型的Si指数阈值明显高于其他类型,说明前倾槽型触发雷暴大风的动力不稳定条件优于热力不稳定条件;副热带高压与低空暖式和冷式切变线型的CAPE及0 ℃层高度阈值明显高于其他4型,而低层的T-Td阈值和云顶亮温则明显低于其他4型。利用各月各型0 ℃层高度阈值可以准确判断雷暴大风过程是否伴有冰雹。

关键词: 雷暴大风, 特征物理量阈值, 概念模型

Abstract:

Based on thunderstorm gales data in recent 40 years and the conventional and new monitoring data in recent 18 years in Shanxi Province, the spatial and temporal distribution of thunderstorm gales in Shanxi Province are analyzed firstly, and then the weather types, characteristic physical quantity thresholds and conceptual models of thunderstorm gales are studied by using the methods of cluster analysis and mesoscale weather analysis. The results show that the average number of thunderstorm gale days in Shanxi had the regional distribution characteristics with more in the north and less in the south, more in mountainous areas and less in plain, and more in western mountainous areas and less in eastern mountainous areas. The extreme thunderstorm gales mainly occurred in the north of Shanxi and Lüliang mountainous regions. The annual thunderstorm gales days in the western mountainous area showed an increasing trend, while there were no changes or decreasing trends in other areas. The thunderstorm gales mainly occurred from May to August, accounting for 75% of the total days of thunderstorm gales in the whole year, and thunderstorm gales occurred most frequently at 16:00 and 21:00 (Beijing Time) in a day. The flow patterns of thunderstorm gales in Shanxi are mainly divided into six types, which are forward-tilting trough, backward-tilting trough, transverse trough, subtropical high and low-level warm shear line, subtropical high and low-level cold shear line, and northwest air flow. The K index threshold of all patterns from April to May was significantly lower than that from June to September, while the temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa was obviously higher than that from June to September. When each pattern meets the characteristic physical quantity thresholds of each month, it can trigger the strong thunderstorm gale weather in Shanxi, while the flow pattern configuration of forward-tilting trough has the highest percentage of triggering extreme thunderstorm gales. Over the same period, the K indices of the patterns of backward-tilting trough, subtropical high and low-level warm shear line, subtropical high and low-level cold shear line are significantly higher than those of the patterns of forward-tilting trough and northwest air flow, while the Si index of the forward-tilting trough is obviously higher than that of other patterns, which indicated that the dynamic instability condition of the forward-tilting trough triggering thunderstorm gale is better than the thermal instability condition. The CAPE and 0 ℃ layer height thresholds of the patterns of subtropical high and low-level warm and cold shear lines are significantly higher and the thresholds of T-Td and cloud top black body temperature in the lower layer are significantly lower than those of the other four patterns. Whether hail is accompanied by thunderstorm gale process can be accurately judged by 0 ℃ layer height threshold of each month.

Key words: thunderstorm gale, characteristic physical quantity thresholds, conceptual models

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