干旱灾害对粮食安全的影响及其应对技术研究进展与展望

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-02-0187

干旱气象 ›› 2023, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 187-206.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-02-0187

干旱灾害对粮食安全的影响及其应对技术研究进展与展望

赵鸿¹^,²(), 蔡迪花¹^,², 王鹤龄¹^,², 杨阳¹^,², 王润元¹^,²(), 张凯¹^,², 齐月¹^,², 赵福年¹^,², 陈斐¹^,², 岳平¹^,², 王兴³, 姚玉璧⁴, 雷俊⁵, 魏星星¹^,²

1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所，中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室，甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730020
2.中国气象局定西干旱气象与生态环境野外试验基地，甘肃定西 743000
3.兰州区域气候中心，甘肃兰州 730020
4.兰州资源环境职业技术大学，甘肃省气候资源利用与防灾减灾重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730021
5.甘肃省定西市气象局，甘肃定西 743000

收稿日期:2023-01-10 修回日期:2023-02-28 出版日期:2023-04-30 发布日期:2023-05-09
通讯作者: 王润元（1965—），男，甘肃西和人，研究员，主要从事干旱气候变化影响适应与干旱监测研究。E-mail：wryww@163.com。
作者简介:赵鸿（1977—），女，甘肃临洮人，研究员，主要从事干旱气候变化影响适应与干旱监测研究。E-mail：zhaohonglt@126.com。
基金资助:
国家自然基金项目(41975151);国家自然基金项目(42175192);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(20JR5RA117);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(21JR7RA772);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(096RJZA129);甘肃省基础研究创新群体项目(20JR5RA121)

Progress and prospect on impact of drought disaster on food security and its countermeasures

ZHAO Hong¹^,²(), CAI Dihua¹^,², WANG Heling¹^,², YANG Yang¹^,², WANG Runyuan¹^,²(), ZHANG Kai¹^,², QI Yue¹^,², ZHAO Funian¹^,², CHEN Fei¹^,², YUE Ping¹^,², WANG Xing³, YAO Yubi⁴, LEI Jun⁵, WEI Xingxing¹^,²

1. Institute of Arid Meteorology， China Meteorological Administration， Key Open Laboratory of Arid Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA， Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province， Lanzhou 730020， China
2. Dingxi Arid Meteorology and Ecological Environment Field Experimental Station， CMA， Dingxi 743000， Gansu， China
3. Lanzhou Regional Climate Center， Lanzhou 730020， China
4. Lanzhou Resources＆Environment Voc-Tech University， Key Laboratory of Climate Resources Utilization and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Gansu Province， Lanzhou 730021， China
5. Dingxi Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province， Dingxi 743000， Gansu， China

Received:2023-01-10 Revised:2023-02-28 Online:2023-04-30 Published:2023-05-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

干旱是当今世界出现频率最高、持续时间最长、危害范围最广的重大气象灾害，对全球农业、生态、社会发展和国民经济等影响巨大而广泛。农业旱灾是影响农业生产的重要因素，农业生产关乎着国家粮食安全。我国是一个农业大国，同时也是一个旱灾频发的国家，深入了解农业干旱灾害的成因、影响特征、旱灾强度、严重程度以及作物致灾的生理过程和机理等是提升农业干旱灾害监测预测预警水平、减轻和防御灾害损失、提高国家粮食安全生产需要解决的重要科学问题。本文综合回顾了国内外不同程度的农业干旱及其对粮食生产影响的最新研究进展，从农作物形态、生理、细胞和分子水平等方面探究了干旱影响特征及机制，围绕粮食生产如何有效应对农业干旱问题，评述了当前农业干旱监测的主要指标、方法、预警系统等，针对农业可持续发展和干旱新特征，讨论了当前防旱减灾和农业干旱应对的现状，强调了适应与减缓并举的一系列干旱应对措施，在此基础上结合国家、区域和行业发展需求提出了今后应着重加强的重要科学问题、研究对策及学科发展展望。

关键词: 干旱灾害, 粮食安全, 农业生产, 影响机制, 干旱监测, 干旱适应与减缓, 对策建议

Abstract:

Drought is a major meteorological disaster with the highest frequency, the longest duration and the widest scope of harm in the world today, which has a huge and extensive impact on agriculture, ecology, social development and national economy all over the world. The drought is an important factor affecting agricultural production which determines the stability of crop production, further relates to the national food security. China is a large agricultural country, and also is a country with frequent drought disaster. Therefore, to improve the monitoring, forecasting and warning level of agricultural drought disaster, it is necessary to deeply understand its formation, influence characteristics, drought intensity, severity and physiological process and mechanism of crop victimization. It is also an important scientific problem to reduce and prevent drought disaster losses and improve national food security production. This paper comprehensively reviews the recent internal and overseas research progress of agricultural drought with different degrees and its impact on crop production, and explores the influence characteristics and mechanism of drought from the aspects of crop morphology, physiology, cellular and molecular levels, etc. The main indicators, indexes, methods and early warning systems in current agricultural drought monitoring are reviewed around food production to cope effectively agriculture drought. According to the new characteristics of agricultural sustainable development and drought, the current situation of drought disaster prevention and mitigation and agricultural drought coping are discussed. A series of drought coping measures both adaptation and mitigation are emphasized. On this basis, combining with the needs of national, regional and industrial development, the paper puts forward the important scientific problems, research countermeasures and the prospect of discipline development which should be emphasized in the future.

Key words: drought disaster, food security, agricultural production, impact mechanism, drought monitoring, drought adaptation and mitigation, countermeasures and suggestions

中图分类号:

赵鸿, 蔡迪花, 王鹤龄, 杨阳, 王润元, 张凯, 齐月, 赵福年, 陈斐, 岳平, 王兴, 姚玉璧, 雷俊, 魏星星. 干旱灾害对粮食安全的影响及其应对技术研究进展与展望[J]. 干旱气象, 2023, 41(2): 187-206.

ZHAO Hong, CAI Dihua, WANG Heling, YANG Yang, WANG Runyuan, ZHANG Kai, QI Yue, ZHAO Funian, CHEN Fei, YUE Ping, WANG Xing, YAO Yubi, LEI Jun, WEI Xingxing. Progress and prospect on impact of drought disaster on food security and its countermeasures[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2023, 41(2): 187-206.

图/表 9

图1 全球人口（a）、可耕地面积（b）和农业淡水需求量（c）的过去、现在和未来（Gupta et al.，2020）

Fig.1 Past， present， and future of world population （a）， arable land （b） and freshwater demand in agriculture （c）（Gupta et al.， 2020）

图2 2022年全球干旱脆弱性指数（联合国《2022年干旱数字》报告）

Fig.2 Global drought vulnerability index in 2022 （the United Nations report “Drought in Numbers 2022”）

图3 2022年6月21日美国干旱状况（美国国家干旱监测网： http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu）

Fig.3 Drought situation in the United States on June 21，2022（National Drought Monitoring of United States from http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu）

图4 2022年8月21日中国干旱状况（http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/cn/index.htm）

Fig.4 Drought situation in China on August 21，2022（http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/cn/index.htm）

图5 1949—2020年不同年代我国粮食因旱受灾率、成灾率和损失率与1949—1959年比值变化（倪深海等，2022）

Fig.5 Changes of the ratio of drought-affected rate and disaster-formative rate and loss rate due to drought in different decades in China during 1949-2020 compared with 1949-1959 （Ni et al.， 2022）

图6 1980—2020年全国重旱以上频率分布（倪深海等，2022）

Fig.6 The frequency distribution of severe drought and above in China from 1980 to 2020 （Ni et al.， 2022）

图7 不同等级干旱对植物的影响机制及植物在形态、生理和分子水平上对干旱的响应

Fig.7 Effect mechanisms of drought with different grades on plants and responses of plant to drought at morphology, physiology and molecule levels

表1 帕尔默干旱指数等级划分

Tab.1 The grade classification of Palmer drought severity index

等级	类型	帕默尔指数
1	无旱	（-0.5，0.5]
2	初旱	（-1.0，-0.5]
3	轻旱	（-2.0，-1.0]
4	中旱	（-3.0，-2.0]
5	重旱	（-4.0，-3.0]
6	特旱	≤-4.0

图8 粮食生产对干旱的适应、减缓和应对技术

Fig.8 The adaptation， mitigation and coping technologies to drought for crop production

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干旱灾害对粮食安全的影响及其应对技术研究进展与展望

Progress and prospect on impact of drought disaster on food security and its countermeasures

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