干旱气象 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 195-201.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-02-0195

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

增暖背景下北极涛动对新疆冬季平均气温的影响

陈颖1,2(), 贾孜拉·拜山2, 邵伟玲2, 刘精2   

  1. 1.中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
    2.新疆气候中心,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
  • 收稿日期:2021-01-30 修回日期:2021-06-07 出版日期:2022-04-30 发布日期:2022-05-10
  • 作者简介:陈颖(1977— ),女,正研级高级工程师,硕士,从事气候预测相关研究. E-mail: meihuazui1206@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(IDM2019006);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金面上项目(2021D01A149);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2020-150)

Influence of Arctic Oscillation on winter temperature in Xinjiang under climate warming background

CHEN Ying1,2(), JIAZILA Baishan2, SHAO Weiling2, LIU Jing2   

  1. 1. Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    2. Xinjiang Climate Center, Urumqi 830002, China
  • Received:2021-01-30 Revised:2021-06-07 Online:2022-04-30 Published:2022-05-10

摘要:

利用1961—2019年新疆冬季平均气温、北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)指数和大气环流场资料,研究冬季AO与新疆同期气温的联系及变化,建立气候增暖背景下冬季AO对新疆冬季平均气温影响的预测概念模型。结果表明:在气候变暖的进程中,冬季新疆气温与AO的联系既有来自气候变暖的影响,也有AO对新疆冬季气温独立的影响。总体来说,冬季AO正(负)异常对应新疆气温正(负)距平。气候变暖以来,冬季AO对新疆冬季平均气温的影响呈非对称型,冬季AO正异常与新疆冬季平均气温正距平的关系一一对应;冬季AO负异常时,新疆冬季平均气温距平的正负取决于东北半球极涡的强弱和中纬度70°E以东区域的位势高度距平。

关键词: 北极涛动, 冬季气温, 气候变暖, 新疆

Abstract:

Based on winter mean temperature observation data in Xinjiang and Arctic Oscillation (AO) index and atmospheric circulation data, the relation and variation between mean temperature in Xinjiang and AO in winter were studied, the conceptual model of winter mean temperature prediction in Xinjiang due to AO influence under the climate warming background was established. The results show that in the process of climate warming, the relation between mean temperature in Xinjiang and AO in winter not only came from global warming, but also depended on AO change in the same period. Overall, the positive (negative) anomaly of temperature in Xinjiang in winter corresponded to AO positive (negative) anomaly. Since the global climate warming, the impact of AO on mean temperature in Xinjiang in winter was asymmetric. When the winter AO index was in positive phase, the corresponding air temperature in Xinjiang was higher than normal, the anomalous change of temperature in Xinjiang matched to AO anomaly in winter. However, when the winter AO index was in negative phase, the positive and negative anomaly of winter air temperature in Xinjiang depended on the intensity of the Polar vortex in northeastern Hemisphere and geopotential height anomaly in the east of 70°E longitude and middle latitude.

Key words: Arctic Oscillation, winter temperature, climate warming, Xinjiang

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