山东春季极端低温与前冬北大西洋海温的关系

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-02-0202

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1961—2018年山东122个国家级气象站逐日气温资料,计算3个极端低温指数,发现利用日最低气温24 h降温幅度定义的极端低温事件发生频率可以更好地反映山东春季极端低温特征。在此基础上利用ERA-Interim逐月再分析资料和Hadley海温数据分析山东春季极端低温事件发生频率时空分布特征及大气环流异常特征。结果表明:(1)山东春季极端低温事件发生频率具有多时间尺度变化特征;(2)山东春季典型极端低温年500 hPa位势高度距平场中高纬呈现出明显的波列结构;(3)格陵兰岛以南的北大西洋是垂直波作用通量传输的关键区,在该关键区低层能量向上传输,传输到高层的能量向外频散,有利于山东地区春季极端低温的维持和加强;(4)前冬北大西洋海温“三极子”模态与山东春季极端低温事件发生频率显著正相关,海温“三极子”模态异常激发出欧亚波列,导致贝加尔湖地区500 hPa高空槽加深加强,受槽后冷空气影响,山东春季极端低温事件频发。

关键词: 极端低温事件, 大气环流, 波作用通量, 海温模态

Abstract:

Based on daily temperature data from 122 national meteorological stations in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2018, three extreme low temperature indices were calculated, and it was found that the occurrence frequency of extremely low temperature events defined by the scale of drop in daily minimum temperature in 24 hours could better reflect the characteristics of extremely low temperature in spring in Shandong. And on this basis, ERA-Interim monthly reanalysis data and Hadley sea surface temperature data were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of occurrence frequency of extremely low temperature events in spring in Shandong and the anomalous characteristics of atmospheric circulation. The results are as follows: (1) The occurrence frequency of extremely low temperature events had multi-time scale variation characteristics in spring in Shandong. (2) The obvious wave train structure on 500 hPa geopotential height field was existed in mid-high latitudes in the typical extreme low temperature years in spring in Shandong. (3) The North Atlantic Ocean to the south of Greenland was a key area for vertical wave flux transmission. In this key area, the energy in the lower layer transmitted upward, and dispersed outward in the upper layer, which was beneficial to the maintenance and enhancement of the extremely low temperature in spring in Shandong. (4) The triple pole mode of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic in the preceding winter had a significant positive correlation with the occurrence frequency of extremely low temperature events in spring in Shandong. The triple pole mode of sea surface temperature excited the Eurasian wave, which led to the deepening and strengthening of 500 hPa trough over the Lake Baikal area. Due to the influence of cold air behind the trough, the extremely low temperature events occurred frequently in spring in Shandong.

Key words: extremely low temperature event, atmospheric circulation, wave activity flux, SST mode

中图分类号:

P467

徐玮平, 孟祥新, 顾伟宗, 伯忠凯. 山东春季极端低温与前冬北大西洋海温的关系[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(2): 202-211.

XU Weiping, MENG Xiangxin, GU Weizong, BO Zhongkai. Relationship between extremely low temperature in spring in Shandong Province and North Atlantic SST in preceding winter[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(2): 202-211.

图/表 14

表1 极端低温指数定义

Tab.1 Definition of extremely low temperature index

序号	代码	中文名称	定义	单位
1	TNn	极端最低气温	月内日最低气温的最小值	℃
2	TN10P	冷夜日数	日最低气温<10%分位数日数	d

图1 山东春季冷夜(a)和极端低温事件(b)阈值空间分布(单位:℃)

Fig.1 Spatial distribution of cold night (a) and extremely low temperature event (b) thresholds in spring in Shandong (Unit: ℃)

图2 山东春季极端最低气温(a,单位:℃),冷夜(b)、极端低温事件(c)发生频率(单位:%)空间分布

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of extremely minimum temperature (a, Unit: ℃), cold night (b) and extremely low temperature event (c) occurrence frequency (Unit: %) in spring in Shandong

图3 1961—2018年春季山东区域平均冷夜(a)和极端低温事件(b)发生频率的标准化距平及其9 a滑动平均

Fig.3 The standardized anomaly of cold night (a) and extremely low temperature events (b) regional average occurrence frequency in spring in Shandong from 1961 to 2018 and their 9-year moving average

图4 基于EEMD的1961—2018年山东春季极端低温事件发生频率序列趋势分解

Fig.4 Trend decomposition of occurrence frequency series of extremely low temperature events in spring in Shandong from 1961 to 2018 based on EEMD

表2 山东春季极端低温事件发生频率序列各IMF分量的周期和方差贡献率

Tab.2 The period and variance contribution rate of IMF components of occurrence frequency series of extremely low temperature event in spring in Shandong

IMF分量	周期/a	方差贡献率/%
IMF1	3	39.6
IMF2	6	15.0
IMF3	19	6.4
IMF4	29	8.5

图5 基于EEMD的1961—2018年山东春季极端低温事件发生频率序列IMF分量的显著性检验

Fig.5 Significance test of IMF components of the occurrence frequency series of extremely low temperature events in spring in Shandong from 1961 to 2018 based on EEMD

图6 1961—2018年山东春季极端低温事件发生频率年际与年代际变化

Fig.6 Inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of occurrence frequency of extremely low temperature events in spring in Shandong from 1961 to 2018

图7 山东春季典型极端低温年500 hPa位势高度距平场(彩色填色区)和气候态(等值线)合成(单位:dagpm)

Fig.7 The composite of anomaly field (color shaded areas) and climatic state (isoline) of 500 hPa geopotential height in the typical extreme low temperature years in spring in Shandong (Unit: dagpm)

图8 1979—2018年山东春季极端低温事件发生频率序列回归的同期500 hPa 位势高度距平场(a,单位:dagpm)和850 hPa温度距平场(b,单位:℃) [打点区域为通过α=0.1的显著性检验(下同);细线方框为114°E以东的山东地区(下同)]

Fig.8 Regression of the 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly field (a, Unit: dagpm) and 850 hPa temperature anomaly field (b, Unit: ℃) on occurrence frequency series of extremely low temperature events in spring in Shandong from 1979 to 2018 (the dotted areas passing the 0.1 significance test (the same as below); the rectangle with fine line for location of Shandong to the east of 114°E (the same as below))

图9 山东春季典型极端低温年北大西洋与欧亚大陆200 hPa波作用通量水平分量(箭头,单位:m2·s2)及其散度(彩色填色区,单位:10-5 m·s-2)(a)及500 hPa波作用通量垂直分量(b,彩色填色区,单位:m2·s2)合成 [粗线方框为关键区(下同)]

Fig.9 The composites of horizontal components of wave activity flux at 200 hPa (arrow, Unit: m2·s2) and its divergence (color shaded area, Units: 10-5 m·s-2) (a) and vertical components of wave activity flux at 500 hPa (b, color shaded area, Unit: m2·s2) over the North Atlantic and Eurasia in the typical extreme low temperature years in spring in Shandong (the rectangle with thick line for key area (the same as below))

图10 1979—2018年山东春季极端低温事件发生频率序列回归的前冬北大西洋海温距平场(单位:℃)

Fig.10 Regression of the North Atlantic SST anomaly field in preceding winter on occurrence frequency series of extremely low temperature events in spring in Shandong from 1979 to 2018 (Unit: ℃)

图11 1979—2018年前冬北大西洋海温标准化距平场EOF分析第一(a、c)、第二模态(b、d)的空间型(a、b)及时间系数(c,d)

Fig.11 The spatial patterns (a, b) and time coefficients (c, d) of the first (a, c) and second (b, d) modes of EOF analysis of standardized anomaly field of North Atlantic SST in the preceding winter during 1979-2018

图12 1979—2018年山东春季极端低温事件发生频率标准化距平年际变化和PC1(a)、PC2(b)

Fig.12 The inter-annual variation of standardized anomaly of occurrence frequency of extremely low temperature events in spring in Shandong and PC1 (a), PC2 (b) during 1979-2018

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