关键词: 气象敏感负荷, 气象因子, 回归分析

Abstract:

Based on the hourly power load data and meteorological data in Xi’an from Feb 1 2010 to Aug 31 2013, the variation of power load and relationship between meteorological sensitive load and meteorological factors were analyzed. The results show that power load presented different characteristics at different time scales, summer and winter were the two peak periods of power load in a year. Extreme power load occurred in summer and winter, and in summer it accounted for 74% of the total. Compared with other meteorological factors, the correlation between temperature and meteorological sensitive load was strongest, which was positive from May to September and negative from October to next April. With the increase of daily mean temperature, the daily meteorological sensitive load rate decreased first, and then increased gradually. When the daily average temperature was 17 ℃, the meteorological sensitive load rate was lowest. When daily maximum temperature reached 34 ℃, it was the initial sensitive value of maximum power load in Xi’an in summer, and 36 ℃was the strong sensitive temperature value, 38 ℃ was the extreme sensitive temperature value. When daily minimum temperature reached -2 ℃, it was the initial sensitive value of the maximum power load in Xi’an in winter, -4 ℃ was the strong sensitive temperature value, and -7 ℃ was the extreme sensitive temperature value.

Key words:
meteorological sensitive load, meteorological factor, regression analysis