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Analysis of influence of drought risk on maize yield in Jilin Province
MU Jia, WU Di, LIU Yang, WANG Dongni, REN Jingquan
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2024, 42 (4): 498-506.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2024)-04-0498
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Under climate warming, drought is still the most serious agro-meteorological disaster affecting maize production in Jilin Province. Accurately assessing drought risk and grasping the quantitative relationship between drought risk and yield could provide scientific reference for ensuring the safety of maize production. Based on the daily meteorological data, maize developmental stages and maize yield data from 1961 to 2020 in Jilin Province, the drought risk index of maize was constructed, its spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed. Moreover, the response relationship between relative meteorological yield and drought risk index was discussed. The result show that drought risk index of maize at each developmental stage decreased successively from northwest to southeast in Jilin Province. During maize growing season, drought risk was the highest at the stage from sowing to seedling, while it was the lowest at the stage from milking to maturing. Drought risk index had negative correlation with relative meteorological yield of maize. Furthermore, absolute value of correlation coefficient was the largest at the stage from tasseling to milking. The maximum comprehensive drought risk index was generally above 2.5 in the west, which might cause nearly 70% loss of maize yield. Besides, maximum comprehensive drought risk index in the middle was about 2.0, and disaster loss rate could reach 50%. In the western and central parts of Jilin Province, relationship between drought risk index from tasseling to milking and relative meteorological yield was a parabola going downwards, as well as the relationship between comprehensive drought risk index and relative meteorological yield. If comprehensive drought risk index was between 0.0 and 2.0, relative meteorological yield might be positive or negative. If comprehensive drought risk index was between 2.0 and 4.0, relative meteorological yield showed a downward trend, and disaster loss rate increased obviously.

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Journal of Arid Meteorology