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Characteristics of meteorological elements and objective forecast verification at the key venues of “the 14th National Games”
PAN Liujie, LIANG Mian, QI Chunjuan, LI Peirong, ZHU Qingliang
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (3): 491-502.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-03-0491
Abstract211)   HTML6)    PDF(pc) (14978KB)(1207)       Save

The fixed-point refined analysis and forecast evaluation of meteorological elements are of great significance to the meteorological guarantee of major sports events. Based on the precipitation analysis product of three-source fusion data from the National Meteorological Information Center and the ERA5 reanalysis data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the characteristics of meteorological elements were studied at the key venues (Xi’an Olympic Sports Centre, Yan’an University Gymnasium and Hanjiang open water area in Ankang) of the 14th National Games, and the prediction performance of precipitation, temperature and wind products of ECMWF, China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model (CMA-MESO) and grid-guided precipitation forecast products (SCMOC) was inspected at the three key venues. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The probability of precipitation at the three key venues was all high in the historical period of the 14th National Games. On the opening and closing days at Xi’an venue, the probability of precipitation was 46% and 44% and the average daily precipitation was 24.6 mm and 9.8 mm, respectively, and the peak of precipitation and precipitation probability mostly appeared from afternoon to evening. (2) The temperature was relatively low at night and increased rapidly in the daytime, and the daily average temperature mostly fluctuated between 12 ℃ and 18 ℃ at the three venues during the 14th National Games, which is generally appropriate to race. The easterly or southerly winds prevailed at the three venues, and the wind speed at Xi’an and Ankang venues was low, which is suitable to sport events, while the frequency of wind force above grade 4 at Yan’an venue was higher, which may have an adverse effect to sport events. (3) In general, the rain probability prediction accuracy of SCMOC at the three venues was the highest in the historical same period of the 14th National Games, but the frequency of precipitation forecast was significantly lower than the observation, which had the risk of missing forecast. In addition, SCMOC had obvious advantages for the rain probability prediction to precipitation processes with circulation situation of blocking pattern and two-trough and one-ridge pattern, while ECMWF had better performance to precipitation processes with low vortex bottom pattern, and TS value was stable. The accuracy of temperature prediction of ECMWF was better than that of SCMOC and CMA-MESO, while the wind speed forecast of SCMOC had absolute advantages. (4) During the 14th National Games, the performance differences among three forecast products were basically consistent with the historical period, but the overall forecast scores were higher than the historical period.

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Characteristics of Road Surface Temperature of Shaanxi Expressway and Its Prediction Model
ZHANG Xi, HAO Yu, LIANG Jia, PAN Liujie, SHEN Jiaojiao, LU Shan
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2019, 37 (6): 1028-1034.  
Abstract369)      PDF(pc) (1159KB)(1941)       Save
Based on the observation data from Shaanxi expressway automatic meteorological stations including the road surface temperature, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and cloud cover of reanalysis data of ECMWF from August 2013 to December 2017, the distribution characteristics of the road surface temperature in different seasons and sky conditions were analyzed, and relations between the road surface temperature and meteorological factors were studied, and relevant multivariate regression equations were established. The results show that the road surface temperature had obvious diurnal variation in different seasons. It was easier to freeze on the road surface from 00:00 BST to 08:00 BST after snow. The air temperature was one of the most important factors affecting the road surface temperature. By fitting the measured and caculated values of the road surface temperature, the results show that the model fitted the minimum road surface temperature well in winter with the correlation coefficient above 0.94, and the standard deviation was less than 1 ℃, and the frequency of difference between the observed and mesured temperature ranging from -2 to 2 ℃ was 98%. In addition, the model fitted better when the road surface temperature was 0 ℃.
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Sensitivity Test of Impact of Urbanization and Anthropogenic Heat on Meteorological Elements in Xi’an
WANG Jianpeng, XUE Chunfang, HUANG Shaoni,WANG Dan, PAN Liujie, CHENG Lu
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2015)-03-0434