Abstract:

Based on the data of sunshine，cloud，mist (haze)，relative humidity，precipitation in Heze from 1965 to 2010，the varia-
tion characteristics of sunshine duration in Heze and its influencing factors were analyzed by using the methods of the climate trend
rate，9 points 2 times smoothing，abrupt change testing，regression analysis and other statistical methods． The results show that the sun-
shine duration significantly reduced with the climate tendency rate of －121． 66 h/10 a in recent 46 years，and in summer and autumn，
it decreased significantly，but in spring the decreasing trend was not so significant，and the decreasing trend was maximum in August．
The sunshine hours had an abrupt change in 1981 from the positive anomaly to the negative anomaly advantage． There were extremely
obvious negative correlation between annual sunshine duration and cloud cover，relative humidity，fog days，and weakly negative corre-
lation with foggy days． The average total cloud cover，relative humidity，fog and haze days( except for summer)，precipitation and
rainfall days showed a significant negative correlation with sunshine hours in four seasons． The main influencing factors of sunshine
hours in spring，summer and the whole year were relative humidity，total cloud cover and foggy days，and in autumn，the main factors
were total cloud cover，foggy and rainfall days，in winter sunshine duration changed with total cloud cover，relative humidity and rain-
fall days．

Key words:  sunshine hours, climate tendency rate, abrupt change, influence factor

摘要：

利用 1965 ～2010 年菏泽日照、云量、雾(轻雾)、相对湿度、降水等资料，采用气候倾向率、9 点2 次平滑、突变检验、回归分析等统计方法，分析了近 46 a 菏泽日照时数变化特征及影响因子。结果表明:近 46 a 菏泽日照时数极显著减少，平均每 10 a 减少 121． 66 h;夏季和秋季极显著减少，冬季显著减少，春季减少趋势不显著;减少趋势最大的是 8 月。1981 年是菏泽日照时数减少突变的时间点，也是日照时数由正距平优势向负距平优势的转折点。年日照时数与总云量、相对湿度和轻雾日数呈极显著负相关，与雾日数呈弱显著负相关;四季日照时数除夏季与雾日数负相关不显著外，均与平均总云量、相对湿度、雾和轻雾日数、降水量和降水日数呈显著负相关。影响菏泽年和春、夏季日照时数变化的主要因子为总云量、相对湿度和雾，秋季主要因子为总云量、雾和降水日数，冬季主要因子为总云量、相对湿度和降水日数。

关键词: 日照时数, 气候倾向率, 突变分析, 影响因子