Journal of Arid Meteorology

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Normality Analysis of Precipitation in Gansu Province

CHEN Xuejun1HU Wenchao2YANG Yufeng1SHI Tao1TANG Guoli3BAI Bing1   

  1. 1. Gansu Meteorological Information & Technique Support & Equipment Centre,Lanzhou 730020,China;
    2. Meteorological Service Centre of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020,China;
    3. National Meteorological Information Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China
  • Received:2012-11-06 Revised:2012-12-26 Online:2013-03-30 Published:2013-03-01

甘肃降水量正态性分析

陈学君1胡文超2 杨瑜峰1 施涛1唐国利3白冰1   

  1. 1. 甘肃省气象信息与技术装备保障中心,甘肃兰州730020; 2. 甘肃省气象服务中心,甘肃兰州730020; 3. 中国气象局国家气象信息中心,北京100081)
  • 作者简介:陈学君( 1973 - ) ,男,甘肃天水人,博士,高级工程师,主要从事数据分析与处理、气象数据质量控制工作. E - mail: xuejunchen1971@163. com
  • 基金资助:

     国家公益性行业( 气象) 科研专项项目“中国近60 年地面关键气候要素均一性检验与订正技术及站址变动影响研究”( GYHY201206013) 资助

Abstract:

Based on monthly and annual precipitation at 81 stations from 1951 to 2010 in Gansu Province,the normality of the observed precipitation and the precipitation series from Box - Cox transformation was analyzed by using Jarque - Bera test and the test of chi -square,respectively. The results show that annual precipitation followed the normal distribution at most of the stations but the monthly precipitation didn’t obey that at half more stations,and in December,November,January the precipitation normality was worst and in May and September it was best. The normality was good in spring and summer but bad in fall and winter at most of stations.The precipitation exists non - normality in all Gansu Province,especially in the Hexi Corridor region,the center and east region of Gansu.Compared with the original series,the pass rate of normality about annual precipitation increased from 81.5% - 82.7% to 97.5% -100% and monthly precipitation increased from 36.2% - 68.5% to 85.4% -94.0% through the Box - Cox transformation,and most of stations followed the normality test.

Key words: Gansu, precipitation, Box - Cox transformation, normality analysis

摘要:

利用1951 ~ 2010 年甘肃省81 个气象站月、年降水量资料,采用Jarque -Bera 检验与χ2 检验对原降水序列和经过Box - Cox 变换后序列的正态性进行分析。结果表明:甘肃省大多数气象站年降水量服从正态分布,但一半以上台站的月降水不服从正态分布。其中12 月、11 月、1 月的正态性最差,而5 月和9 月最好; 从季节来看,甘肃大多数气象站春、夏季正态性较好,秋、冬季正态性较差; 从地域分布来看,全省各地降水均存在非正态,其中河西地区、陇中和陇东部分站点非正态现象尤其突出。经过数据变换后的序列,站年正态性通过率从原来的81.5% ~ 82.7% 升高到97.5% ~ 100%,站月通过率从36.2% ~ 68.5%升高到85.4% ~ 94.0%,大部分站点通过了正态性检验。

关键词: 甘肃省, 降水量, Box - Cox 变换, 正态性

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