Abstract:

We chose Dongsha seawater breeding farm as the experimental base，the air temperature and water temperature change caused by cold air activities in the whole winter of 2010 － 2011 was contrasted，and water temperature change trend under different intensity of cold air and different weather phenomena was discussed． The results show that water temperature change trend was similar to air temperature during nine cold air activities processes，but the changing range was less than that of air temperature and there was obvious lagging character． The influence of cold air on water temperature was remarkable，and the influencing degree related to cold air intensity，concomitant weather phenomena and water depth，if the cold air activity was more stronger，the water temperature would decrease more greater． Different weather conditions had different effect on water temperature，it descended less in fine day and more in cloudy day，and when cold wave occurred it droppped obviously at the same time，one to two days after cold air end，it dropped to minimum．Based on the method of stepwise regression analysis，the underwater 0．5 m and 1 m temperature prediction models in winter of seawater breeding farm were established． The test results of independent samples show that the accuracy was better，and they could be used in business service．

Key words: water temperature, prediction model, cold air, seawater breeding farm, air temperature

摘要：

开展冷空气对海水养殖水温的影响及水温预测预报，可为水产养殖灾害监测预警提供科学依据。该文以东沙海水养殖场为试验基地，对2010 ～ 2011 年整个冬季冷空气活动期间水温气温变化进行了对比分析，并对不同强度、伴随不同天气现象的冷空气影响下水温的变化情况进行讨论。结果表明: 该冬季共有9 次冷空气影响，水温变化趋势与气温相似，但变幅小于气温，而且有明显的滞后性;冷空气对水温有显著的影响，影响程度与冷空气强度、伴随的天气现象及水的深度有关，冷空气越强，水温下降幅度就越大; 不同天气条件对水温的影响不一样，晴天时水温下降较小，阴天水温降幅增大，寒潮影响时水温大幅度下降，冷空气影响结束后1 ～ 2 d，水温降到最低值; 采用逐步回归分析方法，建立了冬季养殖塘水下0.5 m 和1 m 的水温预报模式，经独立样本检验，准确率高，可以应用于业务服务。

关键词: 冷空气, 海水养殖, 气温, 水温, 预报模式