J4 ›› 2011, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 106-109.

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Analysis of Apple Growth Risk Based on Continuous Rainy Days Disaster Index in Shaanxi Province

LI Meirong1,LI Xingmin2,LI Yanli1,LIU Yingning3,LIANG Yi1   

  1. 1.Shaanxi Meteorological Service Observatory for Economical Crops,Xi’an 710015 China; 2.Meteorological Institute of Shaanxi Province,Xi’an 710015 China;3.Xianyang Meteorological Bureau of Shaanxi Province,Xianyang 712000,China
  • Received:2010-11-02 Revised:2010-11-26 Online:2011-03-31 Published:2011-03-31

基于连阴雨灾害指数的陕西省苹果生长风险分析

李美荣1,李星敏2,李艳莉1,刘映宁3,梁轶1
  

  1. 1.陕西省经济作物气象服务台,陕西西安710015; 2.陕西省气象科学研究所,陕西西安710015; 3.陕西省咸阳市气象局,陕西咸阳712034
  • 作者简介:李美荣(1975-),女,陕西户县人,高工,气象学硕士,主要从事天气气候及气象灾害工作.E-mail:lmrxcd@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项“西北地区旱作农业对气候变暖的响应特征及其预警和应对技术研究”(GYHY200806021);陕西省气象局2010年度气象科技创新基金“经济作物气象灾害气候极值的分布模型及重现期预测”(2010M-41)共同资助

Abstract:

Based on rainfall data of apple production area from mid-August to mid-October in recent 40 years in Shaanxi,the continuous rainy days meteorological disaster index was proposed to carry on the risk analysis of apple production.The continuous rainy days meteorological disaster indexes were computed and classified as three level for mild,moderate and serious in apple production area.The results indicated that continuous rainy days meteorological disaster index was mild in 13 counties,moderate in 27 counties and serious in 8 counties,which consisted with actual influence of continuous rainy days on apple production in Shaanxi Province.

Key words: Shaanxi Province, apple production area, continuous rainy days, disaster index

摘要:

利用陕西省苹果产区近40 a 8月中旬至10月中旬逐日降雨量资料,提出了以连阴雨灾害指数Lu(Lu=Nr≥3/NR=0)(Nr≥3为8月中旬至10月中旬雨日连续3 d以上的日数,NR=0为8月中旬至10月中旬无降水日数)量化进行风险分析的方法。用此方法计算了苹果产区各地连阴雨气象灾害指数,分轻度、中度、重度3级对果区各地连阴雨气象灾害指数进行了分级、评价。结果表明,有13个县连阴雨气象灾害指数为轻度,有27个县连阴雨气象灾害指数为中度,有8个县连阴雨气象灾害指数为重度。此计算结果与陕西果区实际连阴雨影响基本一致,表明灾害指数方法是一种较好的风险分析方法。

关键词: 连阴雨, 灾害指数, 苹果生长风险, 评估

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