Journal of Arid Meteorology

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Meteorological Forecast Model for Stripe Rust of Wheat in Shaanxi Province

LI Dengke1, QUAN Wenting1, XIE Feizhou2   

  1. 1. Shaanxi Remote Sensing Information Center for Agriculture, Xi’an 710014, China;
    2. Shaanxi Station of Plant Protection, Xi’an 710003, China
  • Received:2016-05-03 Revised:2016-11-29 Online:2017-02-28 Published:2017-03-01



  1. 1.陕西省农业遥感信息中心,陕西 西安 710014;2.陕西省植物保护工作总站,陕西 西安 710003
  • 作者简介:李登科(1963-),男,陕西眉县人,正研级高工,主要从事农业气象、遥感应用业务和研究工作. E-mail:
  • 基金资助:



A scientific basis can be provided for carrying out comprehensive prevention and control of the epidemic damage of wheat stripe rust in appropriate period with predicting the trend for local area using relationship between wheat stripe rust occurring degree and meteorological conditions. Correlation between occurrence degree of stripe rust of wheat in Shaanxi Province in past years and monthly air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, sunshine hours from last November to April was analyzed, then meteorological factors which were sensitive to occurrence degree of stripe rust of wheat were selected, and they were normalized and weighted combination to make up stripe rust of wheat meteorological indexes and establish the meteorological forecast model for wheat stripe rust. The results show that the meteorological indexes were closely related to occurrence degree of stripe rust of wheat, and the correlation coefficient passed the 0.001 significance level. According to the difference between in the back substitution values obtained from the forecast model of northern and southern Shaanxi and the measured ones, it indicated that approximately 94.5% of the samples were within two levels, and 57.3% of the samples were within one level. For the difference in prediction of occurrence degree of wheat stripe rust in 2014, the 90% of the samples were within two levels, and 40% of the samples were within one level. The general test result was correct or overestimated.

Key words: strip rust of wheat , meteorological factors, forecast model , Shaanxi Province



关键词: 条锈病, 气象因子预报模型, 陕西省

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