Abstract:

The relation between the area of potato late blight and weather conditions in Chengde city during 1990 - 2008 was analyzed.It shows that the biological factor p lays a role under suitable weather conditions in the occurrence of potato late blight. Weather conditions such as temperature, p recip itation, relative humidity, sunshine hours are decisive factors for p revalence of potato late blight. The app rop riate temperature, rainy or foggy weather are most conducive to late blight occurrence and p revalence. Using the affected rate as a criteria to classifymeteorological levels for potato late blight, we selected the p recedingmeteorological elementswhich related well to potato late blight as a p rediction factor, then establish the meteorological forecastingmodel using integrated clusteringmethod. Test results showed that the model can imp rove decision - makingmeteorological service level and win time to control the sp read of potato late blight.

Key words: weather conditions;, forecastmethod, clustering index, potato late blight

摘要：

通过对1990～2008年承德市马铃薯晚疫病的发生面积与气象条件的相关分析表明:马铃薯晚疫病的发生是生物因子在适宜的气象条件下发生作用的结果。气温、降水、相对湿度、日照时数等气象条件是马铃薯晚疫病发生的决定性因素。在温度条件适宜的情况下,阴雨连绵或多雾、多露最有利于晚疫病的发生和流行。以受灾率作为马铃薯晚疫病气象等级的划分标准,选取与晚疫病相关好的前期气象要素作为预报因子,采用综合聚类法建立了马铃薯晚疫病气象等级的预报模型。回代结果表明:用气象综合聚类法做马铃薯晚疫病的气象等级预报,可以为控制晚疫病的蔓延赢得宝贵时间,提高气象决策服务水平。

关键词: 气象条件, 预报方法, 聚类指标, 马铃薯晚疫病