Journal of Arid Meteorology ›› 2019, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 345-350.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2019)-02-0345

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Forecasting Method on Integrated Risk Level of Traffic Condition Based on Weather Conditions for Highway of Hebei Province

QU Xiaoli1,2, ZHANG Di1, GUO Rui1, QI Yuchao1, ZHAO Zengbao1, WU Dan1   

  1. 1. Hebei Meteorological Service Centre, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Meteorological and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
  • Online:2019-04-30 Published:2019-04-30



  1. 1.河北省气象服务中心,河北 石家庄 050021;
    2.河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,河北 石家庄 050021
  • 作者简介:曲晓黎(1982— ),女,高级工程师,主要从事交通气象服务.。
  • 基金资助:

Abstract: Based on the meteorological observation data at traffic weather stations along the highways of Hebei Province and the highway traffic accidents and closed-control data caused by the meteorological conditions during 2012-2017, the influence factors of the intensity of high impact weather, durations, risk zoning levels, single traffic flow, topography and occurrence period, etc. on the highway traffic passing were selected, firstly. Then the risk level forecast models of fog, road icing and heavy rainfall disasters were established by using the multifactor weighted method. And on this basis, the integrated risk level forecast model of highway traffic based on three weather conditions was built, and the grade standards were defined with the discrimination index of highway closed-control time caused by fog, road icing and heavy rainfall. Through testing, the accuracy rate of the forecast products of highway traffic integrated risk level model based on the meteorological conditions was 76.7%, which can meet the demand of daily traffic meteorological service.

Key words: highway, weather conditions, risk level forecast

摘要: 利用2012—2017年河北省高速公路沿线交通气象站观测资料以及因气象条件造成的高速公路交通事故和封闭管制资料,选取公路交通高影响天气的强度、持续时间、风险区划等级、单项车流量、地形、发生时段等多个因子,运用加权分析法,分别建立雾、路面结冰和强降雨3种气象灾害风险等级预报模型。在此基础上,构建综合3种高影响天气条件下的高速公路通行状况综合风险等级预报模型,并以3种天气条件造成的公路封闭时长为判别指标给出分级标准。经检验,基于3种高影响天气的河北高速公路通行状况综合风险等级预报模型,其产品准确率可达76.7%,能够满足日常交通气象服务需求。

关键词: 高速公路, 气象条件, 风险等级预报

CLC Number: