Abstract:

To reveal the temporal variation characteristics of drought／flood in Tianjin city and its surrounding region(±3。)，the drought or flood data of5 stations there from 1470 to 2000 were analyzed by using statistical analysis methods，such fits correlation ana1．ysis，accumulative anomaly，moving t—test，wavelet method and SO on．The results show that the flood or drought variance was almost the~qnle；the years occurringflood ordrought presented normal distribution；therewerefour evidentflood／drought periods during1470 — 2000；the periodicity of flood／drought variance WaS about 10．2O and 36 years．

Key words: Tianjin, flood／drought variance, accumulative anomaly, wavelet analysis

摘要：

为揭示天津市及其周围地区(4-3。)旱涝变化的时间演变特征和变化趋势，采用相关分析、累积距平、滑动t检验、小波分析等统计分析方法，对该地区5个站1470～2000年的旱涝资料进行了分析。结果表明，该地区旱涝变化基本一致，旱年、涝年呈正态分布；在这段时期里，有4个比较显著的干旱、洪涝阶段；旱涝变化有大约10，20和36 a的周期性，和太阳活动周期密切相关

关键词: 天津, 旱涝变化, 累积距平, 小波分析