Foreca st of Prec ip ita tion over 10 mm Ba sed on T213Ma thema tical Foreca st Products in M idsummer in Ba iy in

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on theM ICAPS, T213 mathematical forecast p roducts, aerological observations from 34 stations in forecast key area
and p ressure, p recip itation data for different time in Baiyin, the weather patterns of p recip itation over 10 mm in Baiyin are generalized
by analyzing the synop tic character, and according to them an objective quantification group ing ismade. Some indices and p rediction
factorswith physical significance on p recip itation over 10 mm are selected, and a short - period forecastmodel for p recip itation over 10
mm is built by using the PP numerical interp retable and app lied method. Finally, a forecast test from June to August in 2007 ismade,
it shows a excellent results that the average forecast accuracy reaches 66. 7%.

Key words: T213, numerical interp retation and app lication, p recip itation forecast

摘要：

非均匀下垫面对陆面过程模式应用有着重要影响。若将下垫面一概视为均一,在很多情况下会影响模式模拟的准确性。本文详细介绍了目前非均匀地表陆面过程参数化的方法(Mosaic法、统计—动力法和其它方法) ,初步分析了这些参数化方法的缺陷,并简单探讨了陆面参数尺度转换问题,最后对今后研究的问题给出了建议,其中特别提出要寻找适当方法实现陆面物理量不同尺度间的转换。
　　　　　　
　

关键词: 非均匀下垫面, 陆面过程, 参数化方法, 尺度转换

CLC Number:

P456. 7

JIAO 　Juan, 　Zhang-　Jiang, 　Zhang-　Jie. Foreca st of Prec ip ita tion over 10 mm Ba sed on T213Ma thema tical Foreca st Products in M idsummer in Ba iy in[J]. J4, 2008, 26(1): 73-77.

乔　娟, 　张　强, 　张　杰. 非均匀下垫面陆面过程参数化问题研究进展[J]. J4, 2008, 26(1): 73-77.

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