Abstract:

This arcticle dealswith the data from 108 meteorological stations and the ErlangMountain ice station in the southwest China.Based on the climate statistical p rincip les and methods, we find 13 stations which climatic characteristics are similar to ErlangMountain, and the analysis focuses on themeteorological factors over the EmeiMountain and Kangding station in order to reconstructwire ice - covering series in the ErlangMountain. The mathematical model of the relationship between the meteorological factors of Kangding station and wire ice - covering series in ErlangMountain is established based on the op timal subset regression method. Through the fitting equation, the inter - annual ice - cover sequence in the Erlang Mountain is estimated from the year 1951 to 2001, and combined with the sequence of ErlangMountain’sice - cover in winter from 2001 to 2008,we confirm the reconstructed sequence is coincident with climate trend under the background of globalwarming.

Key words: reconstruction, the ErlangMountain , wire ice - covering, sequence, meteorological factor

摘要：

 通过对四川省甘孜州二郎山与西南地区１０８个气象观测站的气象因子之间的相关关系分析，筛选出１３个气候特征比较接近二郎山的站点，利用二郎山的覆冰资料和邻近站的气象要素对二郎山的覆冰厚度进行重建。使用最优子集回归方法建立了二郎山覆冰序列与康定气象因子之间的数学模型，恢复了二郎山１９５１～２００１年的覆冰厚度资料。趋势分析表明重建的序列与全球变暖的背景下气候变化的趋势是一致的，为划分我国西南地区覆冰等级打下了一定的基础。

关键词: 厚度序列, 气象因子, 重建, 二郎山, 电线覆冰