The synergistic effect of sea temperature and MJO on spring drought in southwestern China in 2023

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2024)-02-0166

Journal of Arid Meteorology ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 166-179.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2024)-02-0166

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The synergistic effect of sea temperature and MJO on spring drought in southwestern China in 2023

LU Xiaojuan¹(), WANG Zhilan¹^,²(), ZHANG Jinyu¹, WANG Yun¹, WANG Lijuan¹, HU Die¹, SHA Sha¹, WANG Suping¹, LI Yiping¹

1. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology， China Meteorological Administration， Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu， Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA， Lanzhou 730020， China
2. Key Laboratory of Water Security and Water Environment Protection in Plateau Intersection （NWNU）， Ministry of Education， College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering， Northwest Normal University Lanzhou 730070， China

Received:2023-10-27 Revised:2024-01-17 Online:2024-04-30 Published:2024-05-12

海温和MJO对2023年西南春旱的协同影响

陆晓娟¹(), 王芝兰¹^,²(), 张金玉¹, 王昀¹, 王丽娟¹, 胡蝶¹, 沙莎¹, 王素萍¹, 李忆平¹

1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所，甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室，中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730020
2.高原交汇区水资源安全与水环境保护教育部重点实验室/西北师范大学化学化工学院，甘肃兰州 730070

通讯作者: 王芝兰（1984—），女，甘肃兰州人，副研究员，主要从事干旱气候变化研究。E-mail: wangzhlan2008@163.com。
作者简介:陆晓娟（1998—），女，甘肃定西人，研究实习员，主要从事干旱成因研究。E-mail: 3214365642@qq.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目(42230611);国家自然科学基金项目(41975111);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(21JR7RA698);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42105131);中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所攻关/共创基金项目(JYGG202307)

Abstract

Abstract:

In the spring of 2023, a severe meteorological drought occurred in southwestern China, which had a serious impact on the local social economy. In order to deeply understand the causes of this drought event and further provide a basis for the prediction technology of spring drought in southwestern China, causes of the spring drought event were analyzed from the perspective of SST (sea surface temperature) and MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) by using station-observed data, NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) SST and other data, choosing T-N wave activity flux, composite analysis and other methods. The results showed that: (1) The spring drought over southwestern China in 2023 was a compound dought-heatwave event occurred in the middle in March, developed and expanded westward in April, and maintained in May. (2) In March, the horseshoe-shaped SST anomalies in the North Pacific caused the westerly jet stream to drift southward and westward, suppressing the precipitation in southwestern China. (3) In April, the anticyclonic circulation anomaly near the Bay of Bengal induced by warm SST in the Indian Ocean through Kelvin wave and the cyclonic circulation anomaly from the South China Sea to the Philippines triggered by warm SST in the Northwest Pacific through Rossby wave resulted in northerly winds in the south of southwestern China, which caused the divergence of water vapor and the development of drought in southwestern China. (4) MJO, which maintained in the western Pacific for a long time in May, stimulated the cyclonic anomaly from the South China Sea to the Philippines in lower troposphere due to Gill response, reduced the transport of southerly water vapor, and maintained drought in southwestern China.

Key words: sea surface temperature, MJO （Madden-Julian Oscillation）, spring drought in southwestern China, causes

摘要：

2023年春季，我国西南地区发生了严重的气象干旱，对当地社会经济造成严重影响。为深入认识这次干旱事件的成因、并为未来西南地区春旱的预测提供科学依据，本文利用站点观测数据、美国国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research，NCEP/NCAR）再分析数据、美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration，NOAA）的海表温度等，采用T-N波作用通量和合成分析等方法，从海温和热带大气季节内振荡（Madden-Julian Oscillation，MJO）的角度深入探讨此次春旱成因。结果表明：（1）2023年我国西南春旱是高温干旱复合事件，3月干旱发生在中部，4月干旱加剧并向西扩展，5月干旱持续。（2）3月北太平洋的马蹄形海温异常导致西风急流偏南偏西，抑制了西南地区的降水。（3）4月印度洋暖海温通过Kelvin波导致孟加拉湾附近的反气旋式环流异常，西北太平洋暖海温通过Rossby波导致南海至菲律宾的气旋式环流异常，造成西南地区南部出现偏北风，导致水汽辐散，加剧干旱。（4）5月MJO长时间维持在西太平洋，通过Gill响应引发南海至菲律宾对流层低层的气旋异常，减少偏南水汽的输送，从而使得西南干旱持续。

关键词: 海表温度, 热带大气季节内振荡, 西南春旱, 成因

CLC Number:

P466

LU Xiaojuan, WANG Zhilan, ZHANG Jinyu, WANG Yun, WANG Lijuan, HU Die, SHA Sha, WANG Suping, LI Yiping. The synergistic effect of sea temperature and MJO on spring drought in southwestern China in 2023[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(2): 166-179.

陆晓娟, 王芝兰, 张金玉, 王昀, 王丽娟, 胡蝶, 沙莎, 王素萍, 李忆平. 海温和MJO对2023年西南春旱的协同影响[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(2): 166-179.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig.1 The spatial distribution of cumulative days of meteorological drought with moderate drought and above (a), severe drought and above (b) and extreme drought (c) in southwestern China in the spring of 2023 (Unit: d)

Fig.2 Monthly K drought index and ten-day variation of AMSR2 microwave soil moisture anomalies （Unit： %） in China in spring of 2023

Fig.3 Daily evolution of drought stations frequency ratios at different levels in southwestern China from February to June，2023

Fig.4 The spatial distribution of percentage of precipitation anomalies in March （a）， April （b） and May （c） in 2023 in southwestern China （Unit： %）

Fig.5 The spatial distribution of surface air temperature anomalies in March （a）， April （b） and May （c） in 2023 in southwestern China （Unit： ℃）

Fig.6 The spatial distribution of geopotential height anomalies (the color shaded, Unit: gpm) and T-N wave activity flux (arrow vectors, Unit: m2·s-2) at 200 hPa (a), divergence anomalies (the color shaded, Unit: 10-6 s-1), westerly winds (red isolines, Unit: m·s-1) and climatology westerly winds (green isolines, Unit: m·s-1) at 200 hPa (b) in March of 2023 (The purple border area indicates southwestern China)

Fig.7 The spatial distribution of geopotential height anomalies (the color shaded, Unit: gpm) and T-N wave activity flux (arrow vectors, Unit: m2·s-2) at 200 hPa (a), OLR anomalies (the color shaded, Unit: W·m-2) and stream function anomalies at 850 hPa (isolines, zero line not shown, the dotted line represents a negative value, Unit: 106 m2·s-1) (b), integrated water vapor flux (arrow vectors, Unit: g·m-1·s-1) and its divergence (the color shaded, Unit: g·m-2·s-1) (c), OLR anomalies (the color shaded, Unit: W·m-2), potential function anomalies (isolines, zero line not shown, the dotted line represents a negative value, Unit: 106 m2·s-1) and divergent wind anomalies (arrow vectors, Unit: m·s-1) at 200 hPa (d) in April of 2023

Fig.8 Geopotential height anomalies (the color shaded, Unit: gpm) and T-N wave activity flux (arrow vectors, Unit: m2·s-2) at 200 hPa (a), OLR anomalies (the color shaded, Unit: W·m-2) and stream function anomalies at 850 hPa (isolines, zero line not shown, the dotted line represents a negative value, Unit: 106 m2·s-1) (b), integrated water vapor flux (arrow vectors, Unit:g·m-1·s-1) and its divergence (the color shaded, Unit: g·m-2·s-1) (c), OLR anomalies (the color shaded, Unit: W·m-2), velocity potential anomalies (isolines, zero line not shown, the dotted line represents a negative value, Unit: 106 m2·s-1) and divergent wind anomalies (arrow vectors, Unit: m·s-1) at 200 hPa (d) in May of 2023

Fig.9 Distribution of sea surface temperature anomalies from September 2022 to August 2023 （Unit： ℃）

Fig.10 IOBW and NINO.WEST index from January， 2022 to August， 2023 (a), composite of 850 hPa stream function anomalies in the years with IOBW (b) and NINO.WEST (c)greater than or equal to 1 standard deviation in April (isolines, the dotted line represents a negative value, Unit: 106 m2·s-1) and its confidence level (the color shaded, a negative value indicates that the stream function is negative, Unit: %) (The red border area indicates southwestern China)

Fig.11 The 850 hPa stream function field in April 2023 obtained by IOBW and NINO.WEST partial regression （Unit： 106 m2·s-1）（The red border area indicates southwestern China）

Fig.12 MJO phase diagram from April 22 to May 31， 2023

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The synergistic effect of sea temperature and MJO on spring drought in southwestern China in 2023

海温和MJO对2023年西南春旱的协同影响

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