Characteristics of dry and wet changes in sunflower growing areas in northern China and their causes from 1961 to 2020

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639（2022）-06-1033

Abstract

Abstract:

The sunflower growing region in northern China is mainly located in arid and semi-arid areas, and the yield is governed by wet and dry conditions. The non-homogeneous variation of water resources between different regions in the context of climate change has increased uncertainty of sunflower production. Based on daily meteorological data from 296 stations in the sunflower growing region in northern China, the wetness index and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated on the basis of precipitation and crop evapotranspiration are used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of dry and wet conditions and the influence of major meteorological factors on crop evapotranspiration in the sunflower growing season from 1961 to 2020, and the causes of changes in dry and wet conditions are explored by using sensitivity and contribution rate method. The results show that the frequency of drought in sunflower growing season in northern China generally presented a spatial distribution decreasing from west to east, among which the frequency of drought was higher in northern Xinjiang, northern Ningxia and western Inner Mongolia. In the last 60 years, both precipitation and evapotranspiration in sunflower growing season decreased. The SPEI had an abrupt change in 1980, and compared with the period of 1961-1980, the frequency of slight, medium and severe drought during 1981-2020 generally decreased by 5.63%, 4.41%, 2.49%. Obvious differences between different regions in terms of dry and wet conditions were found, with the climate in Chifeng of Inner Mongolia, southern Liaoning and the North China plain showing a warm and dry trend, and the climate in western Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang becoming wet. The change in temperature and relative humidity increased crop evapotranspiration, but the change in sunshine hours and wind speed decreased crop evapotranspiration in the last 60 years in sunflower growing season. The contribution rate of wind speed and sunshine hours at 55.39% stations to crop evapotranspiration is greater than that of temperature, resulting in a significant decrease of crop evapotranspiration.

Key words: northern China, sunflower planting area, wet and dry variation, wetness index, crop evapotranspiration, sensitivity coefficient, contribution rate

摘要：

中国北方向日葵种植区域主要位于干旱区和半干旱区，产量受干湿条件制约，气候变化背景下水热资源变率大，对产量形成带来一定影响。利用中国北方向日葵种植区域296个气象台站逐日观测数据，基于降水量和作物蒸散量计算的湿润指数、标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI），分析1961—2020年向日葵生长季干湿状况时空变化特征，并利用敏感性和贡献率法分析气候变化背景下主要气象因子对作物蒸散量的影响，探讨干湿状况变化成因。结果表明：中国北方向日葵生长季干旱频率总体表现为由西向东递减的空间分布特征，其中北疆、宁夏北部及内蒙古西部干旱频率较高。近60 a向日葵种植区生长季降水量和蒸散量均呈下降趋势，SPEI在1980年前后发生突变，较突变前（1961—1980年）相比，1981—2020年轻、中、重旱频率分别下降5.63%、4.41%、2.49%。不同区域干湿状况变化存在明显差异，其中内蒙古赤峰、辽宁南部和华北平原等地区气候呈暖干化趋势，内蒙古西部和新疆等地气候变湿。近60 a向日葵生长季温度和相对湿度变化增加了作物蒸散量，但日照时数和风速变化减少了作物蒸散量，55.39%的站点风速和日照时数对作物蒸散量的贡献率大于温度的贡献率，导致作物蒸散量减少。

关键词: 中国北方, 向日葵种植区, 干湿变化, 湿润指数, 作物蒸散量, 敏感系数, 贡献率

CLC Number:

WANG Xiaochen, MA Xueqing, HE Huayun, REN Siqi, TANG Shuyue, ZHAO Jinyuan, PAN Zhihua, WANG Jing, PAN Xuebiao, HU Qi. Characteristics of dry and wet changes in sunflower growing areas in northern China and their causes from 1961 to 2020[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(6): 1033-1041.

王晓晨, 马雪晴, 和骅芸, 任思琪, 唐书玥, 赵金媛, 潘志华, 王靖, 潘学标, 胡琦. 1961—2020年中国北方向日葵种植区干湿变化特征及其成因分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(6): 1033-1041.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1 Study area and distribution of 296 meteorological stations

Fig.2 The spatial distribution of humid index K during sunflower growth period in planting areas in northern China from 1961 to 2020

Fig.3 The distribution of climatic tendency rate of K index during sunflower growth period in planting areas in northern China from 1961 to 2020（Unit： /10 a）

Fig.4 The spatial distribution of occurrence frequency of drought with different levels during sunflower growth period in planting areas in northern China from 1961 to 2020（Unit： %）（a） light drought，（b） medium drought，（c） serious drought

Fig.5 The M-K mutation test of SPEI during the growing period of sunflower in planting areas in northern China from 1961 to 2020 （a） and inter-decadal variation of occurrence frequency of drought with different levels （b）

Fig.6 The spatial distribution of climatic tendency rate of precipitation（a）and evapotranspiration（b）during the growing period of sunflower in planting areas in northern China from 1961 to 2020 （Unit： mm·（10 a）-1）

Fig.7 Spatial distribution of sensitivity coefficient of ETc to main meteorological factors during growing period of sunflower in planting areas from 1961 to 2020 in northern China （a） temperature，（b） relative humidity，（c） sunlight hour，（d） wind speed

Fig.8 Spatial distribution of contribution rate to ETC of main meteorological elements during growing period of sunflower in planting regions from 1961 to 2020 in northern China（Unit： %）（a） temperature，（b） relative humidity，（c） sunlight hour，（d） wind speed

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