Preliminary study on the causes of extremely less precipitation in Heilongjiang Province in July 2020

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639（2022）-03-0396

Abstract

Abstract:

A preliminary cause analysis of extremely less precipitation in Heilongjiang Province in July 2020 was carried out by using the monthly precipitation data at 62 meteorological stations of Heilongjiang Province, reanalysis data from National Center for Environmental Prediction and circulation indices from National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration, etc. Results are as follows: (1) The precipitation was abnormally less in Heilongjiang in July 2020, and the average precipitation in the whole province was only 75.0 mm, which was the second least since 1961. (2) When the precipitation was abnormally less in Heilongjiang Province in July, the negative phase distribution with East Asia-Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern appeared over the East Asian coast from low to high latitude at 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly field in the same period, the position of East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) obviously leaned to south, and the anomalous anticyclone-cyclone circulation appeared over northeastern China to near the Yellow Sea at the lower level of troposphere, the integrated water vapor diverged over Heilongjiang Province. The circulation characteristics in July 2020 were similar to those in the same period of less rain years, but the intensity of the jet center and its negative anomaly areas on the north side was significantly stronger than those in less rain years, and the center of the jet moved slightly to the east, the meridional wave train in troposphere over East Asian coast was more clearly. The abnormally southerly EASWJ played an important role on abnormally less precipitation in Heilongjiang Province in July 2020. (3) The atmospheric heat source near the South China Sea in May 2020 was abnormally weak, and the distribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) appeared negative phase in July 2020, which caused the EASWJ to move anomalously southward in July through the meridional wave train of EAP teleconnection over East Asian coast and zonal wave train over the middle-high latitude of Eurasia, respectively, and resulted in less precipitation in Heilongjiang Province.

Key words: extremely less precipitation, EASWJ, NAO, atmospheric heat source, Heilongjiang Province

摘要：

利用黑龙江省62个气象站月降水量观测资料和美国国家环境预报中心再分析资料、中国气象局国家气候中心环流指数资料等,对2020年7月黑龙江极端少雨成因进行初步诊断分析。结果表明：（1）2020年7月黑龙江降水异常偏少,全省平均降水量仅75.0 mm,为1961年以来历史同期第2少。（2）黑龙江7月异常少雨年,同期500 hPa东亚沿岸自低纬至高纬呈东亚-太平洋遥相关型（East Asia-Pacific teleconnection,EAP）负位相分布,东亚副热带西风急流（East Asia subtropical westerly jet,EASWJ）明显偏南,低层中国东北地区至黄海附近呈现异常的反气旋-气旋式环流,黑龙江上空整层水汽辐散。2020年7月环流特征与少雨年同期相似,但急流中心及其北侧负异常区较少雨年同期明显偏强,且中心略有东移,东亚沿岸对流层整层风场的经向波列更为清晰。EASWJ异常偏南是2020年7月黑龙江降水异常偏少的关键环流因子。（3）2020年5月南海附近异常偏弱的大气热源和7月负位相分布的北大西洋涛动,分别通过东亚沿岸经向EAP遥相关波列和欧亚中高纬地区纬向波列促使7月EASWJ异常南移,从而导致黑龙江省降水偏少。

关键词: 极端少雨, EASWJ, 北大西洋涛动, 大气热源, 黑龙江省

CLC Number:

P467

LOU Dejun, LI Yongsheng, WANG Yongguang, CHEN Chen, ZHANG Jian. Preliminary study on the causes of extremely less precipitation in Heilongjiang Province in July 2020[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(3): 396-405.

娄德君, 李永生, 王永光, 陈晨, 张健. 2020年7月黑龙江极端少雨成因初探[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(3): 396-405.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1 The time series of precipitation anomaly percentage in July from 1961 to 2020 （a） and its spatial distribution in July 2020 in Heilongjiang Province （b, Unit：%）

Fig.2 The 500 hPa geopotential height （black contours, Unit： gpm） and its anomaly field （color shaded areas, Unit： gpm）（a）, 200 hPa zonal wind anomaly field （b, Unit： m·s-1） and integrated water vapor flux （vectors, Unit： kg·m-1·s-1） and water vapor flux divergence （color shaded areas, Unit： 10-5 kg·m-2·s-1） anomaly field （c）（the blue contours for the climatic mean 5880 gpm lines, the thick black line for the boundary of Heilongjiang Province. the same as below）

Fig.3 Composite anomaly fields of 500 hPa geopotential height （a, contours, Unit： gpm）, 200 hPa zonal wind （b, contours, Unit： m·s-1）, 850 hPa wind field （c, vectors, Unit： m·s-1） and integrated water vapor flux （vectors, Unit： kg·m-1·s-1） and water vapor flux divergence （color shaded areas, Unit： 10-5 kg·m-2·s-1）（d） in years with abnormally less rain in July （Dark and light grey areas indicate the differences between circulations in July of less and more rain years passing the significance tests at 0.01 and 0.05 level, respectively）

Fig.4 The time series of WPSH ridge position （a） and JPI （b） anomaly in July during 1961-2020, and 11-year moving correlation coefficients between precipitation in July in Heilongjiang Province and JPI, WPSH ridge position （c）

Fig.5 The anomaly fields of contemporaneous integrated water vapor flux （vectors, passing significance test at 0.05 level, Unit： kg·m-1·s-1） and water vapor flux divergence （shaded areas, Unit： 10-5 kg·m-2·s-1）（a）, and the latitude-height profile of average vertical velocity anomaly over 120°E-135°E （b, contours, Unit： 10-2 Pa·s-1） regressed by negative JPI in July （The grey areas pass the significance test at 0.05 level）

Fig.6 Composite wave activity flux （vectors, Unit： m2·s-2） and 500 hPa geopotiential height anomaly（contours, Unit： gpm） in negative anomalous years of July JPI （Dark and light grey areas indicate the 500 hPa geopotiential height anomaly passing the significance tests at 0.01 and 0.05 level, respectively）

Fig.7 The distribution of atmospheric heat source anomaly field in May （contours） regressed by negative JPIin July （Unit： W·m-2）（Dark and light grey areas pass the significance tests at 0.01and 0.05 level, respectively）

Fig.8 Correlation coefficients between atmospheric heat sources in the key areas of the South China Sea in May and previous monthly IOBW indices （a） and average zonal vertical circulation over 0°-20°N in the same period regressed by IOBW in May （b, streamlines, the vertical speed multiplied by 2000, Unit： Pa·s-1）（The grey areas pass the significance test at 0.05 level）

References 44

[1]	李明, 胡炜霞, 张莲芝,等. 基于SPEI 的东北地区气象干旱风险分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2018, 32(7):134-139.
[2]	袭祝香, 纪玲玲, 杨雪艳,等. 松辽流域降水集中指数的时空变化特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2019, 37(6):885-891.
[3]	肖子牛. 中国气象灾害年鉴(2008)[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2008:136-137.
[4]	谢永刚, 周长生. 黑龙江省气象灾害对粮食生产影响及农业抗灾能力分析[J]. 黑龙江大学工程学报, 2011, 2(1):66-71.
[5]	孙力, 安刚, 廉毅,等. 中国东北地区夏季旱涝的大气环流异常特征[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2002, 7(1):102-112.
[6]	何金海, 吴志伟, 祁莉,等. 北半球环状模和东北冷涡与我国东北夏季降水关系分析[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2006, 22(1): 1-5.
[7]	兰明才, 张耀存. 东亚副热带急流与东北夏季降水异常的关系[J]. 气象科学, 2011, 31(3):258-265.
[8]	沈柏竹, 林中达, 陆日宇,等. 影响东北初夏和盛夏降水年际变化的环流特征分析[J]. 中国科学:地球科学, 2011, 41(3):402-412.
[9]	贾小龙, 王谦谦. 东北地区汛期降水异常的大气环流特征分析[J]. 高原气象, 2006, 25(2):309-318.
[10]	娄德君, 王波, 王冀,等. 青藏高原5 月大气热源与黑龙江省盛夏降水的关系[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2020, 36(2):34-40.
[11]	孙力, 安刚. 北太平洋海温异常对中国东北地区旱涝的影响[J]. 气象学报, 2003, 61(3):346-353.
[12]	高辉, 高晶. 黑潮冬季海温对我国东北地区夏季降水预测信号的增强[J]. 海洋学报, 2014, 36(7):27-33.
[13]	白人海. 大西洋海表温度异常与中国东北地区夏季降水的关系[J]. 海洋通报, 2001, 20(1):23-29.
[14]	王晓芳, 何金海, 廉毅. 前期西太平洋暖池热含量异常对中国东北地区夏季降水的影响[J]. 气象学报, 2013, 71(2):305-317.
[15]	WU B Y, ZHANG R H, WANG B, et al. On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(9):L09501.
[16]	李燕, 闫加海, 张冬峰. 青藏高原冬春积雪异常和中国东部夏季降水关系的诊断与模拟[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(2):317-324. DOI
[17]	LIN Z D. Relationship between meridional displacement of the monthly East Asian jet stream in the summer and sea surface temperature in the tropical central and eastern Pacific[J]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2010, 3(1):40-44. DOI URL
[18]	廖清海, 高守亭, 王会军,等. 北半球夏季副热带西风急流变异及其对东亚夏季风气候异常的影响[J]. 地球物理学报, 2004, 47(1):10-18.
[19]	申乐琳, 何金海, 陈隆勋,等. 青藏高原热力状况对东亚夏季副热带西风急流的影响[J]. 气象与减灾研究, 2009, 32(1):25-31.
[20]	况雪源, 张耀存. 东亚副热带西风急流位置异常对长江中下游夏季降水的影响[J]. 高原气象, 2006, 25(3):382-389.
[21]	丁婷, 陈丽娟. 东北地区夏季旱涝的环流型及动力气候模式解释应用[J]. 高原气象, 2015, 34(4):1119-1130. DOI
[22]	孙照渤, 曹蓉, 倪东鸿. 东北夏季降水分型及其大气环流特征[J]. 大气科学学报, 2016, 39(1):18-27.
[23]	娄德君, 刘玉莲, 王冀,等. 松花江流域盛夏降水分布型的环流差异及影响机制[J]. 高原气象, 2020, 39(2):280-289. DOI
[24]	陆日宇, 林中达, 张耀存. 夏季东亚高空急流的变化及其对东亚季风的影响[J]. 大气科学, 2013, 37(2):331-340.
[25]	张耀存, 曾鸿阳. 东亚高空急流协同变化研究新进展[J]. 气象科学, 2020, 40(5):617-627.
[26]	张庆云, 宣守丽, 孙淑清. 夏季东亚高空副热带西风急流季节内异常的环流特征及前兆信号[J]. 大气科学, 2018, 42(4):935-950.
[27]	KALNAY E, KANAMITSU M, KISTLER R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1996, 77(3):437-471. DOI URL
[28]	SMITH T M, REYNOLDS R W. Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997)[J]. Journal of Climate, 2004, 17(12): 2466-2477. DOI URL
[29]	刘芸芸, 李维京, 艾孑兑秀,等. 月尺度西太平洋副热带高压指数的重建与应用[J]. 应用气象学报, 2012, 23(4):414-423.
[30]	孙力, 郑秀雅, 王琪. 东北冷涡的时空分布特征及其与东亚大型环流系统之间的关系[J]. 应用气象学报, 1994, 5(3):297-303.
[31]	BARNSTON A G, LIVEZEY R E. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1987, 115(6): 1083-1126. DOI URL
[32]	魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 第2版. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007:13-56.
[33]	赵俊虎, 封国林, 杨杰,等. 夏季西太平洋副热带高压的不同类型与中国汛期大尺度旱涝的分布[J]. 气象学报, 2012, 70(5):1021-1031.
[34]	郑秀雅, 张廷治, 白人海. 东北暴雨[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1992:129-134.
[35]	黄璇, 李栋梁. 1979—2018年5—8月中国东北冷涡建立的客观识别方法及变化特征[J]. 气象学报, 2020, 78(6):945-961.
[36]	刘炜, 赵艳丽. 内蒙古中西部地区2018年夏季异常多雨成因[J]. 干旱气象, 2020, 38(5):709-715.
[37]	杨宁, 金荣花, 肖天贵,等. 夏季沿亚洲副热带西风急流Rossby波传播及其与我国降水异常的联系[J]. 气象, 2020, 46(1):1-14.
[38]	杨莲梅, 张庆云. 北大西洋涛动对新疆夏季降水异常的影响[J]. 大气科学, 2008, 32(5):1187-1196.
[39]	王永波, 施能. 夏季北大西洋涛动与我国天气气候的关系[J]. 气象科学, 2001, 21(3):271-278.
[40]	SUN J Q, WANG H J. Changes of the connection between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Asian summer rainfall[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2012, 117:D08110.
[41]	单幸, 周顺武, 王美蓉,等. 青藏高原大气热力异常对西风急流的影响[J]. 气象科学, 2019, 39(2):206-213.
[42]	李笛, 陈海山. 不同区域海温对亚洲夏季副热带西风急流变异主模态的影响[J]. 气象科学, 2017, 37(4):425-435.
[43]	QU X, HUANG G. Impacts of tropical Indian Ocean SST on the meridional displacement of East Asian jet in boreal summer[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2011, 32(13): 2073-2080. DOI URL
[44]	李邦东, 赵中军, 舒黎忠,等. 1961—2010年东北地区降水事件时空均匀性研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2014, 30(3): 52-58.