Journal of Arid Meteorology ›› 2021, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (2): 345-355.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2021)-02-0345

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Application of Classification Indexes and Criterion on Severe Convection Weather in Shanxi Province

DONG Chunqing, WU Yongli, GUO Yuanyuan, MA Li, MIAO Qing   

  1. Shanxi Meteorological Observatory, Taiyuan 030006, China
  • Online:2021-04-30 Published:2021-05-07

山西强对流天气分类指标与判据的应用

董春卿,武永利,郭媛媛,马丽,苗青   

  1. 山西省气象台,山西 太原 030006
  • 通讯作者: 武永利(1965— ),男,山西阳泉人,正研级高工,主要从事区域精细化预报研究. E-mail: wu_yongli@sina.com。
  • 作者简介:董春卿(1984— ),男,山西介休人,高级工程师,主要从事灾害性天气数值模拟研究.
  • 基金资助:
    山西省重点研发计划项目(201803D1221)、山西省青年科技研究基金面上青年基金项目(201901D211572)和山西省气象局面上项目(SXKMSTQ20185109)共同资助

Abstract: Based on the model sounding analysis field and forecast field of North China RMAPS (rapid-refresh multi-scale analysis and prediction system), the environmental parameter characteristics of four types of severe convection weathers were contrastively analyzed in Shanxi Province, and the classification indexes and criterion of severe convection weathers were summarized. And on this basis, the category forecasting scheme of severe convection weathers was designed in Shanxi Province, then the occurrence probability of severe convection weathers with four types on grid points was calculated, and the feasibility of classification forecast of severe convection weathers was further explored. The results are as follows: (1) The environmental parameters including convective available potential energy (CAPE), K index, temperature difference between the middle and lower level, temperature dew point deficit on low level, 600 hPa temperature and low-level vertical wind shear had a certain indicative significance for distinguishing types of severe convection weathers in Shanxi. (2) The low-level vertical wind shear and 600 hPa temperature between hail or thunderstorm-gale and short-term heavy precipitation or thunderstorm had significant difference. Using the 20.0 ℃ temperature difference between 700 hPa and 500 hPa as a threshold, the thunderstorm-gale could be distinguished from short-term heavy precipitation, hail and thunderstorm weathers. Taking the 4.0 ℃ temperature-dew point deficit on 700 hPa as a threshold, the short-term heavy precipitation could be distinguished from hail, thunderstorm-gale and thunderstorm weathers. The above results could be used as the basic criteria of recognition of severe convection in Shanxi Province. (3) The classification forecasting scheme had a certain forecasting ability to severe convections in Shanxi Province, and it could capture the possible falling areas of hail, thunderstorm-gale and short-term heavy precipitation to some extent during a large-range severe convection process. The short-term forecasting ability of classification scheme was slightly higher than that of average level of forecasters’ subjective forecast, and the threat score was improved by about 0.01-0.06.

Key words:  , severe convection, model sounding data, classification indexes and criterion, Shanxi

摘要: 基于快速循环同化的华北睿图模式的探空分析场和预报场,针对山西4类强对流天气的环境参数特征进行对比分析,归纳强对流天气分类判别指标及判据。在此基础上,设计山西强对流天气的分类预报方案,计算网格点上不同类型强对流天气发生概率,初步探讨山西强对流天气分类预报的可能性。结果表明:(1)对流有效位能、K指数、中低层温差、低层水汽饱和度、中层温度以及低层垂直风切变等参数,对甄别山西强对流天气的类型有一定指示意义。(2)山西冰雹、雷雨大风天气与短时强降水、雷暴天气存在差异的主要环境参数是低层(0~3 km)垂直风切变和600 hPa温度。以20 ℃为阈值的700 hPa与500 hPa中低层温差可用来区分雷雨大风与短时强降水、冰雹、雷暴天气;以4 ℃为阈值的700 hPa温度露点差可以区别短时强降水与冰雹、雷雨大风、雷暴天气。以上可作为山西强对流天气分类的基本判据。(3)分类预报方案对山西夏季强对流具有一定的预报能力,一定程度上能够从大范围强对流过程中捕捉到可能发生雷雨大风、短时强降水、冰雹的区域,该方案的短时预报能力略高于预报员主观预报的平均水平,TS评分约提升0.01~0.06。

关键词: 强对流, 模式探空, 分类指标及判据, 山西

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