Abstract:

The global wind and solar energy over land were projected by the ensemble mean results of multiple models in CMIP5 under different climate change scenarios and their change characteristics were analyzed during 2020-2030. The results show that the ensemble mean results of multiple models could well reproduce the distributions of global wind and solar energy, which indicated that the ensemble mean results of multiple models were reliable to simulate the wind and solar energy. Compared with the poriod from 1986 to 2005, the change of global wind and solar energy over land had obvious regional and seasonal characteristics under different climate change scenarios from 2020 to 2030, and their seasonal change rates were greatly different over different regions of land. Under different RCP scenarios, the wind energy increased during 2020-2030 in America, Africa and Australia, while it decreased in Europe compared with the poriod from 1986 to 2005. The wind energy increased under RCP2.6 scenario in Asia (Northwest China and Central Asia), while it decreased under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during 2020-2030. The global solar energy over land increased under different RCP scenarios during 2020-2030, especially in Europe. The change tendency and change rate of wind and solar energy over different region in the future had some differences under different RCP scenarios, which indicated that the response of wind and solar energy to global climate change in the future was complex.

Key words: wind and solar energy, future projection, climate change scenario, CMIP project

摘要：

基于CMIP5计划的多模式集合平均结果，预估了未来不同气候变化情景下，2020—2030年全球陆地风能和太阳能资源的变化。结果表明，多模式集合平均结果对全球风能、太阳能资源的模拟具有较高的可信度。不同气候情景（RCPs）下，未来2020—2030年间全球陆地风能、太阳能资源的变化（相对于1986—2005年）具有明显的区域性差异，其中，美洲、非洲和澳洲的风资源有所增加，而欧洲风资源丰富区则有所减小；亚洲（如中国西北和中亚地区）的风资源在RCP2.6情景下呈增加趋势，而在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下则呈现减小趋势。全球陆地太阳能资源在未来不同RCPs情景下均呈增加趋势，尤其在欧洲光能资源丰富区。全球陆地上的风能、太阳能资源存在明显的季节变化特征，且季节变率在不同地区差异较大。不同丰富区风能和太阳能资源的变化趋势及变化幅度在不同RCPs情景下有一定差异，表明风能和太阳能资源的未来变化对全球气候变化响应的复杂性。

关键词: 风光资源, 未来预估, 气候变化情景, CMIP计划