Abstract:

On the basis of agricultural meteorological disaster risk theory, this study evaluated the drought disaster at the flowering stage of potato in Inner Mongolia by using data from 73 meteorological stations from 1979 to 2013, historical drought disaster records, potato yield data and social attribute data, etc. The index of precipitation anomaly at the flowering stage of potato was used to determine the danger distribution of drought-causing factors, combined the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, the exposure of the disaster environment and the evaluation index system of disaster prevention and mitigation capacity in this region, the risk regionalization of drought disaster at the flowering stage of potato in Inner Mongolia was done by using GIS spatial analysis capacity. Research indicated that the high risk areas covering 15.0% mainly distributed in the northeastern of Ordos, some areas of Hohhot, most regions of Wulanchabu, the south of Xilinhot and part areas of Chifeng.The middle risk zone with 33.4% coverage of the total area primarily distributed in the north and south of Hohhot, most regions of Chifeng, the west of Tongliao and most regions of Xing’an League. The lower risk area dominantly distributed in the east of Tongliao，the southeastern of Hulunbeier City, which covered 31.8% of the total area. The low risk area with 19.8% coverage distributed in irrigated areas, such as Hetao irrigation area and Liao River Basin.

Key words:  potato, flowering stage, drought, risk regionalization, Inner Mongolia

摘要：

利用内蒙古73个旗县气象站点1979—2013年的观测资料、历史干旱灾害资料、马铃薯产量数据和社会属性数据等，通过内蒙古马铃薯花期的降水距平干旱指标，确定了干旱致灾因子的危险性分布，结合承灾体的脆弱性、孕灾环境的暴露性和防灾减灾能力的评价指标体系，利用GIS的空间分析功能，对内蒙古马铃薯花期干旱灾害的风险性进行评估与区划。结果表明：干旱高风险区主要分布在鄂尔多斯市东北部、呼和浩特市部分地区、乌兰察布市大部、锡林郭勒盟南部和赤峰市部分地区，所占面积比例为15.0%；干旱中风险区主要分布在呼和浩特市南部和北部、赤峰市大部、通辽市西部和兴安盟大部地区，所占面积比例为33.4%；干旱较低风险区主要分布在通辽市东部和呼伦贝尔市东南部，所占比例为31.8%；干旱低风险区主要分布在具有灌溉能力的河套灌区和辽河流域，所占面积比例为19.8%。

关键词: 马铃薯, 花期, 干旱, 风险区划, 内蒙古