Journal of Arid Meteorology

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Test and Comparative Analysis on Precipitation Forecast Based on
 Several Numerical Forecast Models in Tacheng of Xinjiang

JING Lihong1, GAO Jing2, ZHAO Zhong3, JING Lijun2,
YANG Xian4, QIN Rong5, ZENG Chunlei1   

  1. 1. Tacheng Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang, Tacheng 834700, China; 2. Wusu Meteorological
     Bureau of  Xinjiang, Wusu 833300, China; 3. Caijiahu Meteorological Station of Xinjiang,
     Changji 831304, China; 4. Urumqi Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, China;
    5. The Information Center of Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau, Urumqi 830002, China
  • Received:2016-09-06 Revised:2016-09-06 Online:2017-02-28 Published:2017-03-01

数值预报模式在新疆塔城地区降水预报中的检验

井立红1高婧2赵忠3井立军2杨霰4秦榕5曾春雷1   

  1. 1.新疆塔城地区气象局,新疆 塔城 834700;2.新疆乌苏市气象局,新疆 乌苏 833300;
    3.新疆蔡家湖气象站,新疆 昌吉 831304;4.新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002;
    5.新疆维吾尔族自治区气象局信息中心,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
  • 作者简介:井立红(1971-),女,高级工程师,主要从事短期预报及服务. E-mail:jinglh2003@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    中亚大气科学研究基金项目“塔城盆地暴风雪天气对公路交通影响及预报”(caas201717)

Abstract:

Based on precipitation forecast data from Germany, Japan, T639 and EC-thin grid patterns, the forecast effects of precipitation were tested and analyzed comparatively. The results show that the TS (test score) of EC-thin pattern was the highest about the center of heavy rainfall  and maximum precipitation as well as beginning or ending time of rainfall in the Tacheng basin, the TS of EC-thin pattern about those in southern Tacheng was the second, and it was lowest in Hefeng. The TS of German pattern about rainfall area was highest in the Tacheng basin, while the TS of EC-thin pattern about rainfall area was best in southern Tacheng and Hefeng. Except for Hefeng station, the forecast effects of four patterns about precipitation were better in cold season  than those in warm season. With the extension of time and increase of rainfall grades, the forecast effects of four patterns decreased in 24-72 hours. The test score of four patterns about light rain (snow) in 24 hours was highest.

Key words:  numerical prediction pattern , Tacheng region, precipitation, test, comparison

摘要:

利用德国、日本、T639、EC细网格模式降水预报资料,采用客观分析和TS评分检验方法对2012年1月至2016年3月塔城地区降水的预报效果进行检验和对比分析。结果表明:EC细网格模式对盆地强降水中心、最大降水量、降水开始及结束时间预报的TS评分最高,TS评分次高为南部地区,而和丰地区最差;德国模式对盆地降水落区预报的TS评分最高,EC细网格模式对南部及和丰地区降水落区预报的TS评分最高;除和丰外,4种模式对塔城地区冷季降水预报的TS评分均高于暖季,对24 h 各级别降雪预报的TS评分高于降雨;随着预报时效延长、降水量级增大,4种模式对24—72 h降雨(雪)及24 h各级别降雨(雪)的预报准确率随之下降,其中24 h降雨(雪)、小雨(雪)的TS评分最高。

关键词: 预报模式, 塔城, 降水, 检验, 对比

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