Journal of Arid Meteorology

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Analysis on Errors of SCMOC Refined Guidance Temperature Prediction Corrected by the Decaying Averaging Method in Shaanxi Province

WANG Dan1, HUANG Shaoni2, GAO Hongyan1, MA Lei1, WANG Jianpeng2   

  1. 1. Shaanxi Service Center of Meteorology, Xi’an 710014, China; 2. Shaanxi Meteorological Observatory, Xi’an 710014, China
  • Online:2016-06-30 Published:2016-06-30

递减平均法对陕西SCMOC精细化温度预报的订正效果

王丹1黄少妮2高红燕1马磊1王建鹏2   

  1. 1.陕西省气象服务中心,陕西西安710014;2.陕西省气象台,陕西西安710014
  • 作者简介:王丹(1986-),女,陕西渭南人,硕士,工程师,主要从事气象服务工作. E-mail:dandan-w@live.cn
  • 基金资助:

    陕西省气象局预报员专项(2014Y-24)及陕西省气象局数值预报应用研究创新团队项目共同资助

Abstract:

The errors of SCMOC refined guidance temperature prediction were trying to be corrected by using the decaying averaging method for 731 days sample data from 2012 to 2013 at 99 stations in Shaanxi. The results show that the decaying averaging method had positive correction skill, which could considerably increase accuracy of every three hours temperature and daily maximum temperature predicted from 08:00 BST and 20:00 BST, daily minimum temperature predicted from 08:00 BST, and the correction skill was better in which accuracy was lower than that in other periods. For every three hours temperature during the forecasting period of 48 hours, the accuracy was higher at nighttime than that in the daytime, but the correction skill was better in daytime than that in nighttime. For daily maximum and minimum temperature during the forecasting period of 168 hours, with forecast period extending the correction skill increased while the accuracy decreased. In addition, for every three hours temperature during the forecast period of 48 hours and daily minimum temperature during the forecasting period of 24 hours, the correction skill was better in months in which the accuracy was lower than that in other months.

Key words: decaying averaging method, refined guidance temperature, error correction, accuracy

摘要:

利用递减平均法对2012—2013年陕西区域99站共731 d的SCMOC温度精细化指导预报进行误差订正,订正结果表明:该订正方法总体表现为正的订正效果,对08:00和20:00起报的定时温度、日最高温度以及08:00起报的日最低温度有明显的订正能力,在准确率偏低的预报时效内订正效果较好;对于48 h内逐3 h定时温度预报,在夜间的准确率高于白天,对应的“递减平均法”在白天的订正能力高于夜间;对于168 h内日最高(低)温度预报,随着预报时效的增加准确率降低,但是“递减平均法”的误差订正能力增强;“递减平均法”对48 h内逐3 h定时温度和24 h内日最低温度的订正能力在准确率偏低的月份偏强。

关键词: 递减平均法, 精细化温度预报, 误差订正, 准确率

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