Abstract:

The monitoring and forecasting of short duration heavy precipitation is one of the key points in short － term forecast operation in Longnan of Gansu Province． The SWAN has been used in short － term precipitation forecasting work in Longnan in 2011，and it has played important role． Comprehensive analysis was done to investigate the applications of SWAN in the warning and forecasting of the short duration heavy precipitation，including a variety of warnings，combined reflectivity，vertical liquid water content ( VIL) ，echo top height，quantitative precipitation forecast ( QPF) ，quantitative precipitation estimation ( QPE) ，forecast for the movement of storm ( STM and TITAN) ，reflectivity forecast． Through the analysis，the important indication roles of SWAN outputs are summarized． The results also show that SWAN is quite important for improving the accuracy of forecasting about short duration heavy precipitation in Longnan region．

Key words: heavy precipitation, short － term forecast, pre － warning, application analysis

摘要：

短历时强降水是陇南短时临近监测预报的重点，在2011 年汛期中，短时临近预报业务系统( SWAN) 正式投入业务运行，其监测预警预报功能在陇南短历时强降水预报中发挥了重要的作用。本文利用SWAN 监测预警预报资料，综合分析了SWAN 在陇南短历时强降水预报预警中的应用，特别是各种报警、组合反射率、垂直液态含水量( VIL) 、回波顶高、定量降水预报( QPF) 、定量降水估测( QPE) 、风暴移动路径预报( STM 和TITAN) 、反射率预报等资料的应用，总结归纳出了SWAN 在短历时强降水预报预警中各类资料的指示作用，对提高陇南短历时强降水的短时临近预报的准确率有重要的意义。

关键词: 强降水, 短时临近预报, 预警, 应用分析