Abstract:

Based on theM ICAPS, T213 mathematical forecast p roducts, aerological observations from 34 stations in forecast key area and p ressure, p recip itation data for different time in Baiyin, the weather patterns of p recip itation over 10 mm in Baiyin are generalized by analyzing the synop tic character, and according to them an objective quantification group ing ismade. Some indices and p rediction factorswith physical significance on p recip itation over 10 mm are selected, and a short - period forecastmodel for p recip itation over 10 mm is built by using the PP numerical interp retable and app lied method. Finally, a forecast test from June to August in 2007 ismade, it shows a excellent results that the average forecast accuracy reaches 66. 7%.

Key words: T213, numerical interp retation and app lication, p recip itation forecast

摘要：

基于M ICAPS系统,利用T213数值预报格点资料、预报关键区34个站点的高空资料以及市内4县区不同时次的本站气压和日降水量资料,通过分析白银市中雨以上降水的天气特征,归纳出中雨以上降水的天气形势,并据此进行客观定量化分型;选取对白银市中雨以上降水具有明显物理意义的消空指标和预报因子,利用PP数值释用方法,建立了白银市盛夏中雨以上降水的短期预报模型。对2007年6～8月进行试报,预报准确率平均达66. 7% ,预报效果较好

关键词: T213, 数值释用, 降水预报