New progress and prospect of drought research since the 21st century

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-04-0549

Abstract

Abstract:

Drought is one of the natural disasters with the widest impact and the most serious economic losses in China, which directly threatens the country’s food security and socio-economic development. The understanding and research on drought will help to improve the national capacity of drought prevention and mitigation. Since 1949, China’s research on drought meteorology has achieved fruitful results. Based on the research results of the scientific research project group related to drought meteorology carried out by the Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration since the 21st century, through the achievement retrieval, this paper summarizes the new progress in drought monitoring technology, drought temporal and spatial distribution, drought disaster-causing characteristics, drought disaster risk and its response to climate warming, as well as drought disaster risk management and defense technology. At the same time, based on the frontier development trend of drought meteorology research, on the basis of strengthening the comprehensive drought observation test in drought prone areas under the background of climate change, this paper puts forward that China’s drought meteorology research in future should study quantitatively the formation mechanism of drought from different dimensions and scales, build a new comprehensive drought monitoring method of multi-source data fusion and multi-method combination, reveal the mechanism of drought disaster-causing and evaluate scientifically the drought disaster risk, putting forward the executable risk management strategies. This work is of positive significance to promoting drought meteorological research in China.

Key words: drought meteorology, drought monitoring, drought disaster-causing, drought disaster risk, climate warming

摘要：

干旱是中国影响范围最广、造成经济损失最严重的自然灾害之一，直接威胁国家粮食安全和社会经济发展，对干旱问题的认识和研究有助于提升国家防旱减灾能力。自新中国成立以来，中国对于干旱气象的研究取得了丰硕的成果。本文以21世纪以来中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室为平台开展的与干旱气象相关的科研项目群取得的研究成果为基础，通过成果检索，对干旱监测技术、干旱时空分布规律、干旱致灾特征、干旱灾害风险及其对气候变暖的响应以及干旱灾害风险管理与防御技术等方面的新进展进行总结和归纳。同时，基于干旱气象研究的前沿发展趋势，提出中国未来干旱气象研究应在加强气候变化背景下干旱高发区综合性干旱观测试验基础上，从不同维度和尺度定量研究干旱形成机理，构建多源数据融合和多方法结合的综合干旱监测新方法，揭示干旱致灾机理，科学评估干旱灾害风险，提出具有可执行性的风险管理策略等重点科学问题上取得突破。这对于推动中国干旱气象研究具有积极意义。

关键词: 干旱气象, 干旱监测, 干旱致灾, 干旱灾害风险, 气候变暖

CLC Number:

P461

WANG Ying, ZHANG Qiang, WANG Jinsong, HAN Lanying, WANG Suping, ZHANG Liang, YAO Yubi, HAO Xiaocui, WANG Sheng. New progress and prospect of drought research since the 21st century[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(4): 549-566.

王莺, 张强, 王劲松, 韩兰英, 王素萍, 张良, 姚玉璧, 郝小翠, 王胜. 21世纪以来干旱研究的若干新进展与展望[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(4): 549-566.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig.1 The monitoring accuracy of each drought index for different regions and different seasons (cited from literature [31]) (a) spring， (b) summer， (c) autumn， (d) winter

Fig.2 Spatial distributions of the trend of SPI from 1960 to 2011 (cited from literature [35])(○ and ▲ represent passing the confidence level of 99.9% and 95%， respectively) (a) the whole year， (b) spring， (c) summer， (d) autumn， (e) winter

Fig.3 Variation of drought severity (a)， frequency (b) and duration (c) before and after temperature abrupt change in China (cited from literature [37])

Fig.4 Drought transfer processes and interactions (cited from literature [45])

Fig.5 Drought disaster chain in southwestern China (a) and South China (b) (modified from literature [47]) (The color labels represent the corresponding disaster-affected body by drought disaster with different levels)

Fig.6 The trends for the three key climate factors (monthly total precipitation， mean temperature and MCI) and their relationships to crop growth and development periods (cited from literature [48])

Fig.7 Probability of drought disaster under precipitation deficit at different cumulative time scales (Unit: %) (a) 1 month， (b) 2 months， (c) 3 months， (d) 1-3 months， (e) 4-6 months

Fig.8 Conceptual model of drought disaster risk formation mechanism (cited from literature [46]) (solid lines for direct impact， and dotted lines for indirect impact)

Fig.9 The relation between the factors of drought disaster risk and the effect of climate warming on them (cited from literature [45])

Fig.10 Spatial distributions of drought hazard (a， b) and risk (c， d) before (a， c) and after (b， d) temperature jump (cited from literature [53])

Fig.11 Characteristics of drought disaster risk in South China and southwestern China before (a) and after (b) temperature abrupt change (cited from literature [46])

Fig.12 Changes of the average comprehensive loss rate of agriculture drought before and after the increases of annual average temperature in northern， southern China and the whole China (cited from literature [18])

Fig.13 Conceptual model of drought disaster risk management strategy (modified from literature [46])

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