Abstract: Based on daily climatic elements data simulated by five global circulation models (GCMs) in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), daily mean temperature, precipitation and solar total radiation from 50 weather stations, and growth period and per unit yield of single-season rice in the south of the Huaihe River of Anhui Province, the climate changes during the growth period of single-season rice in the south of the Huaihe River of Anhui Province were estimated in the 21st century. And on this basis, the climatic productivity potential (YCPP) of single-season rice and its response to climate changes during the growth period were estimated in near term (2018-2039), middle term (2040-2069), and long term (2070-2099) by using the productivity decay method. The results are as follows: (1) The simulation ability of five GCMs to temperature and precipitation in the south of the Huaihe River of Anhui Province was well, and the simulation effect of temperature was better than that of precipitation. (2) The different growth stages of single-season rice in the south of the Huaihe River would be ahead under different RCPs scenarios in the 21st century, and the whole growth period would shorten. The temperature during whole growth stage of single-season rice would continue to increase under different climate scenarios in the future, and the warming rate in the north would be higher than that in the south, especially under RCP8.5 scenario. The precipitation would present a fluctuating change as a whole, but it would increase obviously in southern region, while the solar total radiation would decrease significantly in the future. (3) The estimated climatic productivity potential of single-season rice under different RCPs scenarios would decrease significantly in the 21st century compared with the baseline period, especially in long period. (4) The climatic productivity potential of single-season rice would be negative and positive correlated significantly with mean temperature and precipitation during whole growth stage from 2018 to 2099, respectively, and the negative effect of climate warming on climatic productivity potential would be prominent. In conclusion, the climate change in the future would not be conducive to the improvement of climatic potential productivity of single-season rice in the south of the Huaihe River of Anhui Province.

Key words: climatic productivity potential, future climate scenarios, single-season rice, in the south of the Huaihe River of the Anhui Province

摘要： 针对未来气候变化及其对一季稻的可能影响，利用第5次耦合模式比较计划（coupled model intercomparison project phase 5，CMIP5）中5个气候模式（global circulation models，GCMs）和3种RCPs情景输出的逐日气候要素资料以及安徽淮河以南50个气象站1961—2010年逐日平均气温、降水量等观测资料和各县一季稻生育期、单产资料，预估未来21世纪安徽淮河以南一季稻生育期气候变化，并基于潜力衰减法估算近期（2018—2039年）、中期（2040—2069年）和远期（2070—2099年）一季稻气候生产潜力及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：（1）5个GCMs对安徽淮河以南气温与降水量具有较好的模拟能力，且气温模拟效果更佳。（2）不同RCPs情景下未来一季稻各生育期将提前、全生育期缩短。预估的安徽淮河以南一季稻生育期持续增暖，北部增温幅度高于南部，其中RCP8.5情景下变暖幅度更显著；未来全生育期降水量整体变化趋势不明显，但南部增加较为明显，而太阳总辐射均显著减少。（3）不同RCPs情景预估的一季稻气候生产潜力均呈显著下降趋势，以远期降幅最大。（4）一季稻气候生产潜力与全生育期平均气温和降水量显著相关，且增暖负效应突出。可见，未来气候变化可能对一季稻气候生产潜力的提高不利。

关键词: 气候生产潜力, 未来气候情景, 一季稻, 安徽淮河以南