Journal of Arid Meteorology

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Tire Burst Meteorological Condition Index Forecast Method in Shengyang

SUI Dong1, LIANG Hong1, AN Xin1, ZHANG Yu1,
ZHANG Siyao1, WEI Tao1, WANG Bingchuan1, ZHAO Feng 2   

  1. 1. Shenyang Meteorological Bureau of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110168, China;
    2. Sujiatun Meteorological Station of Shenyang in Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110179, China
  • Online:2017-10-31 Published:2017-10-31

沈阳爆胎气象条件指数预报方法研究

隋东1,梁红1,安昕1,张郁1,张思瑶1,韦涛1,王炳川1,赵凤2   

  1. 1.辽宁省沈阳市气象局,辽宁沈阳110168;2.辽宁省沈阳市苏家屯区气象局,辽宁沈阳110179
  • 作者简介:隋东(1969—),女,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事公众气象服务工作. E-mail:470080537@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:

    沈阳市科技局项目“沈阳乡镇精细化气象预报预警技术攻关” (F15-109-3-00)资助

Abstract:

The correlation was analyzed between the daily maximum surface temperature in Shenyang and 140 observation factors such as temperature, relative humidity, cloud cover, wind direction, wind speed, precipitation, etc. The results show that the relationship between the daily maximum surface temperature and air temperature was the best with positive correlation coefficient above 0.7. The relative humidity was also one of the main factors affecting the maximum surface temperature, and the negative correlation coefficient was below -0.6. The skid resistance of pavement was mainly affected by precipitation. Generally speaking, the greater precipitation intensity and precipitation amount, the greater impact on road conditions and vehicle driving. However, the light rain was more likely to cause a tire burst accident than a moderate rain. When the road was wet or had a small amount of water, the road surface friction coefficient decreased, which was easy to cause traffic accidents. According to the selected correlation factors, the binary linear regression equation between daily maximum surface temperature and the correlation factors was established. The prediction method of tire burst meteorological condition index in Shenyang was obtained. The tire burst meteorological condition index was divided into four grades. The tire burst meteorological condition index was calculated and tested in July 2015, there were 2 tire burst accidents in Shenyang city area, and tire burst meteorological condition index reached 3 level.

Key words: Shenyang, summer, the maximum surface temperature, tire burst meteorological condition index, forecast method

摘要:

通过对沈阳观象台气温、相对湿度、云量、风速和降水等140个观测因子与日地面最高温度进行相关分析,发现日地面最高温度与气温相关关系最好,正相关系数在0.7以上,相对湿度也是影响地面最高温度变化的主要因子之一,负相关系数绝对值大于0.6。路面抗滑能力主要受降水影响,一般来说,降水强度越强、降水量越大,对路况和车辆行驶的影响越大,但小雨较中雨时的爆胎事故发生概率更高,这主要是因为小雨车速较快,而且路面潮湿或有少量积水,路面摩擦系数降低,容易引起交通爆胎事故。基于选择的相关因子,建立日地面最高温度与相关因子间的二元线性回归方程,得出沈阳爆胎气象条件指数预报方法,爆胎气象条件指数共分为4个等级。经过对2015年7月爆胎气象条件指数计算检验,沈阳市区内2次爆胎事故,爆胎气象条件指数均达到3级。

关键词: 沈阳, 夏季, 地面最高温度, 爆胎气象条件指数, 预报方法

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