Abstract:

Based on daily meteorological data during 1951-2015 and global solar radiation observations during 1993-2014 in Hangzhou of Zhejiang Province, three indicators including high temperature, warming night and heat index, were calculated to study the characteristics of hot weather in recent 65 years. A simple hot weather forecasting model was established based on 08:00 BST data such as solar radiation, air temperature and relative humidity. The results are as follows: (1) The occurring days of high temperature, warming night and hot weather increased gradually from 1951 to 2015, and the increasing rate changed considerably after the year 2000. High temperature weather occurred mainly in July and August with the frequency of 86.8%. The heat index showed the impact of humidity on human body, and air temperature corresponding to heat threshold descended with increase of relative humidity. (2) Air temperature, relative humidity and global solar radiation at 08:00 BST presented a significant correlation with high temperature weather. And high temperature weather tended to occur when air temperature was more than 28.0 ℃, relative humidity was less than 70.0% and global solar radiation was more than 0.8 MJ·m-2. (3)The hot weather forecasting model was established based on three associated factors using Logic regression, and the accuracy rate of historical forecast reached 87.0%.

Key words:  Hangzhou, high temperature weather, variation characteristics, meteorological , factors

摘要：

利用杭州市1951—2015年逐日气象要素资料和1993—2014年太阳总辐射观测资料，通过高温、暖夜和炎热指数对杭州近65 a炎热天气变化特征进行分析，并尝试以08:00太阳辐射、气温和相对湿度为预报因子建立高温日逻辑回归（Logit）模型。结果表明：（1）杭州市65 a来高温日数、暖夜日数和炎热日数均呈缓慢上升趋势，2000年前后上升速率明显加快，其中高温日集中出现在每年7、8月，频率达86.8%；炎热临界值所对应温度随相对湿度的增大逐渐下降，温度差达3.7 ℃；（2）高温日数年际变化序列与08:00气温、相对湿度和太阳总辐射相关性较好，当08:00气温大于等于28.0 ℃、相对湿度小于等于70.0%、总辐射大于等于0.8 MJ·m-2时，较易出现高温天气；（3）Logit模型预报历史回报准确率达到87.0%，具有一定的应用价值。

关键词: 杭州, 高温天气, 变化特征, 气象因子