Journal of Arid Meteorology

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Verification of Cloud Structure and Precipitation Forecast of a Vortex Cyclone

  

  1. 1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. Weather Modification Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. Weather Modification Office of Shanxi Province, Taiyuan 030032, China
  • Online:2017-04-30 Published:2017-04-30

一次低涡气旋云系宏微观结构和降水预报的检验

  

  1. 1.中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081;
    2.中国气象局人工影响天气中心,北京 100081;
    3.山西省人工降雨防雹办公室,山西 太原 030032
  • 作者简介:孙晶(1978-),女,副研,主要从事云降水物理和人工影响天气研究与预报业务. E-mail: sunj@camscma.cn
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务项目(2014R004)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY20120625)和国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0601702)共同资助

Abstract:

Drought happened in North China and Northeast China in spring of 2014. Weather Modification Center of CMA carried the work of cloud structure forecast and seeding conditions analysis by using the weather modification models and observations to guide the cloud seeding test. The cloud seeding conditions were analyzed through the GRAPES-CAMS model products including cloud band, supercooled water, vertical structure of cloud, precipitation, etc, firstly. Then, the forecasted results by GRAPES-CAMS model were mainly verified through the observation data of satellite and aircraft. A rainfall process happened in North China and Northeast China due to the cold vortex system from 9 to 12 May 2014, and the large cloud band moved from North China to Northeast China. The positions of forecasted rain band with 48 h and 24 h and their evolutions were basically correct, and the magnitudes, area and period of rainfall with 24 h forecast were closer to the observations. The distribution and evolution of forecasted wide range cloud system were coincided with the retrieval of satellite. The cloud property and vertical structure were basically consistent with the detection of aircraft, but the forecasted cloud top height was slightly higher than the observation. The vortex cloud system was the mixed phase structure of cold and warm clouds, and the strong rainfall distributed in the north and east to southeast of the vortex. The cloud top temperature of the vortex centre ranged from -15 to -25 ℃, and that in the east and north of the centre was below -40 ℃. There was much supercooled water and less ice particles in the east and southeast of the vortex, so it was suitable to glaciogenic seeding for rainfall enhancement. The mass content of supercooled water and number concentration of the model forecast were close to the detections of aircraft.

Key words: cloud structure, numerical weather prediction, model product verification

摘要:

利用GRAPES_CAMS模式对2014年5月9—12日一次大范围低涡气旋降水过程的云宏微观结构和降水进行预报,结合观测资料,从天气结构、降水、云宏微观结构等方面对模式预报结果进行检验分析,对低涡气旋降水的增雨可播区进行模式识别。结果表明:无论48 h还是24 h模式均可预报出雨带的位置和移动趋势,且24 h预报雨量的量值、落区和降水时段与实测更接近;模式预报的大范围云系分布和演变与卫星反演结果较吻合;模式预报出了与实测接近的云层冷暖结构、降水性质、云带位置等特征,但云顶高度预报比实测偏高;模式预报的过冷水含量、降水粒子浓度与飞机观测结果接近。低涡降水云系基本为冷暖混合云结构,雨区主要分布于低涡北部、东部及东南部;低涡中心云顶温度为-25~-15 ℃,而其东侧和北侧云顶温度在-40 ℃以下,云系含水量大值区主要位于低涡东部和东南部,冷云催化增雨可播区主要位于700 hPa低涡东侧和东南侧的西南气流中。

关键词: 云结构, 数值预报, 产品检验

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