Abstract:

Based on the daily temperature and precipitation from 7 meteorological stations in Bayingol Mongol autonomous prefecture of Xinjiang from 1961 to 2013, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of temperature and precipitation were analyzed by using the methods of one-variable linear regression, 5 years sliding average, accumulative anomaly as well as Mann-Kendall mutation test. The results show that the annual and seasonal temperature in Bayingol Mongol autonomous prefecture obviously increased in the past 53 years on the whole, and the warming rate in the north of Bayingol Mongol autonomous prefecture was higher than that in the south, and it was maximum in winter and minimum in spring. Thus it can be seen that warming in winter was the greatest contribution to annual temperature.The warming mutations of annual and seasonal temperature occurred after the 1980s during 1961-2013, and in the south it was earlier than that in the north, in winter it was earlier than that in other seasons. The annual precipitation in Bayingol Mongol autonomous prefecture from 1961 to 2013 presented a significant increasing trend, the increasing rate in rainy season was more than that in rainless season, they were 3.16 mm·(10 a)-1 and 1.59 mm·(10 a)1, respectively, and in the north it was more than that in the south. The mutations of precipitation in whole area and its northern region occurred in the early 1980s during 1961-2013, and in rainless season it was slightly eariler than that in rainy season, while in the south it didn’t happen.

Key words:  Bayingol Mongol autonomous prefecture, climate change, trend analysis, mutation test

摘要：

利用新疆巴州地区7个国家级气象地面基准站1961—2013年气温和降水逐日资料，通过累积距平法、滑动平均、一元线性回归趋势法及Mann-Kendall突变检验法，对该地区气温和降水的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明：近53 a，新疆巴州地区年、季平均气温整体均呈显著上升趋势，增温率北部高于南部、冬季最高而春季最小，并在1980年代以后发生增温突变，南部突变早于北部，冬季突变早于其他季节。巴州地区年降水量也呈显著增加趋势，增加速率多雨季高于少雨季、北部高于南部；全区及其北部地区降水量在1980年代中前期发生突变，且少雨季突变略早于多雨季、北部略早于全区，而南部地区未发生突变。

关键词: 巴州地区, 气候变化, 趋势分析, 突变分析