Journal of Arid Meteorology

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Characteristics on Highway Traffic Accidents Caused by the Disastrous Weather in Hebei and the Early-warning Indexes System of Highway Traffic Under Foggy Weather Condition

ZHANG Jinman1,2,TAN Guirong1,WU Huiqin2,ZHANG Yanheng2,ZHANG Di2   

  1. 1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key Laboratory
     of Meteorological Disasters of the Education Ministry, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,
     Nanjing 210044, China; 2. Hebei Provincial Meteorological Service and Technology Center, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
  • Online:2016-04-30 Published:2016-04-30

灾害性天气交通事故特征及雾天公路通行预警指标体系

张金满1,2,谭桂容1,武辉芹2,张彦恒2,张娣2   

  1. 1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,气象灾害教育部重点实验室,
    江苏南京210044;2.河北省气象服务中心,河北石家庄050021
  • 作者简介:张金满(1977- ),男,工程师,主要从事专业气象服务研究. E-mail:zzzjm2046@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    河北省科技厅项目“灾害性天气条件下高速公路通行管理技术研究”(12275405)和河北省科研项目“恶劣天气行业气象服务信息库及服务规范研究”(12ky21)共同资助

Abstract:

Based on the highway traffic accidents data and the meteorological observations from the traffic automatic meteorological stations and weather stations during 2008-2012 in Hebei Province, the diurnal, monthly and annual variation characteristics of traffic accidents percentages and their relationship with the disastrous weather such as rainy, snowy and foggy weather were analyzed. Then considered the meteorology, road network, traffics and terrain factors, the early warning indexes system of highway traffic under foggy weather condition in Hebei Province was established by using the experts marking and index weight methods. And combined with the traffic accidents in Hebei of Beijing-Shanghai and Huanghua-Shijiazhuang highways during 2013-2014, the warning indexes system was tested. Results showed that the annual frequency of highway traffic accidents in Hebei Province had large change during 2008-2012, and it appearred a downward trend in the whole. The daily change of traffic accidents was obvious, and the frequency of traffic accidents from 00:00 to 08:00 was the most, followed by 11:00 and 16:00. The monthly frequency of traffic accidents displayed a single peak change, in July it was highest, followed by June, May and August, while in December it was lowest, therefore the traffic accidents in summer was the most, the percentage was 30.2%, and in winter it was the least, the percentage was 20.2%. The traffic accidents caused by disastrous rainy, foggy and snowy weather frenquently occurred from May to September, September to the next March and December to the next February, respectively. And the traffic accidents under foggy weather condition often occurred from 06:00 to 08:00. The accuracy rates of the operational warning in Hebei section of Beijing-Shanghai and Huanghua-Shijiazhuang highways during 2013-2014 were respectively 84% and 75.9%, which was higger. The early warning indexes system could provide reference to traffic weather service and disaster prevention and mitigation in Hebei Province.

Key words:  disastrous weather, traffic accident, warning index, weather service

摘要:

利用2008~2012年河北省高速公路交通事故资料和交通气象自动站、气象站观测资料,统计分析了高速交通事故的日、月及年变化特征及其与雨、雪、雾等灾害性天气的关系。在此基础上,基于气象、路网、交通和地形等因素,采用专家评分法和指标权重法,构建河北省雾天高速公路通行预警指标体系,并结合2013~2014年京沪、黄石高速河北段案例,对预警指标体系进行检验。结果表明:河北省高速公路交通事故年发生频次变化较大,总体呈下降趋势;每日00~05时为高速交通事故高发时段,12时、16时为次高峰;夏季是高速交通事故多发季节(30.2%),冬季最少(20.2%)。其中,7月交通事故最多,5月、6月、8月次之。5~9月、9月至翌年3月、12月至翌年2月,分别是河北雨、雾、雪等灾害性天气高速交通事故多发期,每日06~08时是雾天高速交通事故高发时段。2013~2014年试预报检验京沪、黄石高速通行预警级别准确率分别为84%、75.9%,精度较高,该指标体系可为河北省交通气象服务及防灾减灾提供一定参考。

关键词: 灾害性天气, 交通事故, 预警指标, 气象服务

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