Abstract:

Based on meteorological data of 27 observation stations in the middle of Gansu Loess Plateau from 1971 to 2013，the climatic production potential was calculated by using the Thornthwaite Memorial model and its variation tendency was analyzed by means of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF). Studies show that temperature increase was obvious in middle Gansu Loess Plateau, the climatic production potential was greatly dependent on precipitation and fluctuated with the change of precipitation. On the whole, the climatic production potential presented a zonal distribution, which was affected by topography. Driven by a single factor, when temperature was reduced by 1 ℃, the climatic production potential would be cut by 22 kg·hm-2·a-1, and when temperature increased 1 ℃, the climatic production potential would increase 18 kg · hm-2 · a-1. And when precipitation was reduced by 10 mm, the climatic production potential would decrease 11 kg·hm-2·a-1, and when precipitation increased 10 mm, the climatic production potential would increase 10 kg·hm-2·a-1. The dual driving effect was just like the superposition of the single factor. The study area was divided into four regions by the weight assessment of driving factors, it should be treated differently in the regional agricultural development strategy in order to fully improve the efficiency of climate resources.

Key words: middle Gansu Loess Plateau, climatic production potential, driving effectiveness

摘要：

根据陇中黄土高原27个气象台站1971～2013年气象资料，采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算气候生产潜力，通过经验正交函数(EOF)方法分析其变化特征。研究表明：研究区域升温明显，降水以及气候生产潜力呈波动性变化，实际产量占气候生产潜力的43.8%（2000～2013年），农业开发力度还待大幅提升。气候生产潜力南高北低，纬向分布差异明显；在热量驱动下温度每降低1 ℃，气候生产潜力减产22 kg·hm-2·a-1；温度每增加1 ℃，气候生产潜力增产18 kg·hm-2·a-1，热量不足对农业产量有明显抑制作用；在水分驱动下每减少10 mm降水，气候生产潜力将减产11 kg·hm-2·a-1；降水每增加10 mm时，气候生产潜力将增加10 kg·hm-2·a-1。在热量、水分双驱动时气候生产潜力同步叠加了水热条件的共同影响，加大水热供应量将会有效提升农业产量，并且使气候生产潜力差异性变化趋缓。驱动效益分析将陇中黄土高原划分为4个区域，在不同区域农业发展需要因地制宜，区别对待。

关键词: 陇中黄土高原, 气候生产潜力, 驱动效益