• CN 62-1175/P
• ISSN 1006-7639
• 双月刊
• 中国科技核心期刊
• 中国学术期刊综合评价数据库统计源期刊
• 中文科技期刊数据库收录期刊

• 论文 •

### 青海东部雷电活动环境特征及其预报

1. 1.青海省气象灾害防御技术中心，青海西宁810001；2.青海省气象服务中心，青海西宁810001；
3.青海省气象科学研究所，青海西宁810001；4.青海省防灾减灾重点实验室，青海西宁810001
• 出版日期:2018-09-04 发布日期:2018-09-04
• 作者简介:刘晓燕（1981— ），女，工程师，硕士，主要从事雷电监测预报和灾情分析研究. E-mail:1104706800@qq.com。
• 基金资助:

中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201611）和青海省气象局预报员专项（2016-33）共同资助

### Environment Characteristics of Lightning Activity and Its Forecast in the Eastern Qinghai

1. 1. Qinghai Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center, Xining 810001, China;
2. Qinghai Meteorological Service Center, Xining 810001, China;
3. Institute of Meteorological Science of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, China;
4. Key Laboratory of Disaster Preventing and Mitigation of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, China
• Online:2018-09-04 Published:2018-09-04

Abstract:

Based on the flash and sounding data from June to August during 2011-2013 at Xining station, the environment parameters of lightning activity were analyzed by using the principal component analysis. The correlations between the single environment parameter, compound environment parameters and lightning activity have been studied. The results are as follows: The compound environment parameters could be divided into three categories: stratification stability, the temperature and humidity of atmospheric, and power indexes. The single environment parameter such as pseudo-equivalent temperature at 700 hPa, total totals index (TT), Showalter index (SI), deep convective index (DCI) and K′ index lying within a certain range, had good relationship with the lightning activity. The single environment parameters were selected to formulate a Logistic regression equation that produced the probabilistic forecast of lightning activity in the eastern of Qinghai. The equation was tested with the data from June to August in 2014, it was found that the Logistic regression equation offered better results.

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