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青海东部雷电活动环境特征及其预报

刘晓燕1王玉娟1王军1代青措2肖宏斌3,4张志春1   

  1. 1.青海省气象灾害防御技术中心,青海西宁810001;2.青海省气象服务中心,青海西宁810001;
    3.青海省气象科学研究所,青海西宁810001;4.青海省防灾减灾重点实验室,青海西宁810001
  • 出版日期:2018-09-04 发布日期:2018-09-04
  • 作者简介:刘晓燕(1981— ),女,工程师,硕士,主要从事雷电监测预报和灾情分析研究. E-mail:1104706800@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201611)和青海省气象局预报员专项(2016-33)共同资助

Environment Characteristics of Lightning Activity and Its Forecast in the Eastern Qinghai

LIU Xiaoyan 1, WANG Yujuan 1, WANG Jun1, DAI Qingcuo 2,XIAO Hongbing 3,4ZHANG Zhichun1   

  1. 1. Qinghai Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center, Xining 810001, China;
    2. Qinghai Meteorological Service Center, Xining 810001, China;
    3. Institute of Meteorological Science of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, China;
    4. Key Laboratory of Disaster Preventing and Mitigation of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, China
  • Online:2018-09-04 Published:2018-09-04

摘要:

选用2011—2013年6—8月西宁站探空和闪电资料,对雷电天气发生时的环境参数进行主成分分析,探讨多环境参数和单环境参数与雷电活动之间的相关性。结果表明:多环境参数主要为层结稳定度类、大气温湿类和动力类三类;700 hPa 假相当位温、全总指数、沙氏指数、深对流指数和高原修正K′指数5个单环境参数在一定的取值范围内与雷电活动关系密切。以单环境参数为预报因子建立青海东部雷电活动潜势预报方程,利用2014年6—8月实测数据样本进行试报检验,预报效果理想。

关键词: 雷电活动, 环境参数, 主成分分析, Logistic回归法, 潜势预报

Abstract:

Based on the flash and sounding data from June to August during 2011-2013 at Xining station, the environment parameters of lightning activity were analyzed by using the principal component analysis. The correlations between the single environment parameter, compound environment parameters and lightning activity have been studied. The results are as follows: The compound environment parameters could be divided into three categories: stratification stability, the temperature and humidity of atmospheric, and power indexes. The single environment parameter such as pseudo-equivalent temperature at 700 hPa, total totals index (TT), Showalter index (SI), deep convective index (DCI) and K′ index lying within a certain range, had good relationship with the lightning activity. The single environment parameters were selected to formulate a Logistic regression equation that produced the probabilistic forecast of lightning activity in the eastern of Qinghai. The equation was tested with the data from June to August in 2014, it was found that the Logistic regression equation offered better results.

Key words:  lightning activity, environment parameter, principal component analysis, Logistic regression, potential trend forecast

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