干旱气象

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基于信息扩散理论的中国南方水旱灾害风险特征

  

  1. 1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰州730020;
    2.兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000;3.西北区域气候中心,甘肃兰州730020
  • 出版日期:2016-12-30 发布日期:2016-12-30
  • 作者简介:王莺(1984- ),女,博士,副研究员,从事气候变化与农业生态研究.
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划(2013CB430206)、国家自然科学基金(41605089)和公益性行业(气象)科研专项基金(GYHY201506001-6)共同资助

Risk Characteristics of Flood and Drought Disaster in Southern China Based on the Information Diffusion Theory

  1. 1. Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of
     Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Laboratory of
    Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou 730020, China;
    2. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    3. Northwest Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020, China
  • Online:2016-12-30 Published:2016-12-30

摘要:

水旱灾害是影响中国南方地区农业生产的主要自然灾害。收集1997—2012年中国南方所辖5省1市的农业灾情数据,建立基于水旱灾害受(成)灾面积的受(成)灾指数。以灾害学理论为基础,基于信息扩散理论的风险评估模型获得中国南方地区不同等级农业水旱灾害风险发生概率。结果表明:(1)贵州和云南的旱灾成灾率高,重庆和广西的水灾成灾率高,说明这些地区的农业对干旱和洪涝的适应性和恢复力差,容易成灾;(2)农业水(旱)灾受灾等级普遍高于成灾等级。随着农业水(旱)灾受灾风险等级的增加,成灾风险等级可能并未随之增加,说明良好的防灾减灾能力可以有效地降低农业水(旱)灾成灾率。研究区北部的水灾风险防范难度大于南部,西南的旱灾风险防范难度大于华南,农业旱灾较之水灾的发生风险等级高、成灾率高,受灾面积和成灾面积广;(3)从空间分布来看,水灾主要发生在四川和重庆地区,旱灾主要发生在西南地区,其中重庆的成灾率较高。

关键词: 中国南方, 信息扩散理论, 水旱灾害, 风险特征

Abstract:

Flood and drought disasters are the major natural disasters influencing crop production in southern China. The indexes of the disaster-affected and disaster-formative were established based on agricultural disasters data in 5 provinces and 1 municipality during 1997-2012. Through the in-depth analysis of the flood and drought risks, combined with the principles of natural disaster system, and on the basis of fuzzy mathematics theory of information, the occurrence probability of flood and drought risks in different grades was obtained by the risk assessment model. The results showed that the drought hazard rates in Guizhou and Yunnan were high, while the flood hazard rates in Chongqing and Guangxi were high, which indicated that the crops in these areas had a poor adaptability and resilience to drought and flood. With the increase of the grades of the agricultural flood and drought disaster-affected, the grades of the disaster-formative might not be increased. It showed that the good disaster prevention and mitigation capacity could effectively reduce the agricultural flood and drought hazard rates. The difficulty of the flood risk prevention in northern part of the study area was bigger than that in southern part, while that of the drought risk prevention in southwestern China was bigger than that in southern China. Compared with the flood, the drought risk grade and hazard rates for crop were higher, and the areas of disaster-affected and disaster-formative were wider. Spatially, the flood mainly occurred in Sichuan and Chongqing, while drought mainly occurred in southwestern China, wherein the hazard rates in Chongqing was higher.

Key words: southern China, information diffusion theory, flood and drought disaster, risk characteristics

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