关键词: 强降水, 短时临近预报, 预警, 应用分析

Abstract:

The monitoring and forecasting of short duration heavy precipitation is one of the key points in short － term forecast operation in Longnan of Gansu Province． The SWAN has been used in short － term precipitation forecasting work in Longnan in 2011，and it has played important role． Comprehensive analysis was done to investigate the applications of SWAN in the warning and forecasting of the short duration heavy precipitation，including a variety of warnings，combined reflectivity，vertical liquid water content ( VIL) ，echo top height，quantitative precipitation forecast ( QPF) ，quantitative precipitation estimation ( QPE) ，forecast for the movement of storm ( STM and TITAN) ，reflectivity forecast． Through the analysis，the important indication roles of SWAN outputs are summarized． The results also show that SWAN is quite important for improving the accuracy of forecasting about short duration heavy precipitation in Longnan region．

Key words: heavy precipitation, short － term forecast, pre － warning, application analysis