宁夏地区气溶胶光学厚度的时空变化特征

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2026-02-0303

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

大气气溶胶对气候变化和区域空气质量具有重要影响。基于2003—2023年MODIS（Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer）MAIAC Collection 6.1的1 km分辨率气溶胶光学厚度（Aerosol Optical Depth，AOD）数据，运用Theil-Sen趋势分析、Mann-Kendall显著性检验和Spearman相关性分析等方法，探究宁夏AOD的时空变化规律及其影响因素。结果表明：（1）AOD在宁夏呈现北高南低、西高东低的空间分布格局，高值区集中于人类活动密集的沿黄城市带及清水河流域。（2）年均AOD以0.003 a^-1的速率下降，2011年达峰值后下降尤为明显；近21 a宁夏全区75.12%的区域AOD显著下降，且下降最显著区域（-0.006 a^-1）与人口密集分布的沿黄城市带高度吻合，反映了人为减排的作用。（3）AOD在季节上表现为“春高（0.33）、夏降（0.27）、秋低（0.20）、冬升（0.25）”的规律，春季峰值主要受沙尘活动主导。（4）AOD年际变化与人为颗粒物排放量的减少趋势同步；而季节尺度上则呈现主导因子的动态切换，即春季与风速显著正相关，夏季与植被指数呈极显著负相关，秋季则与风速转为负相关。

关键词: 气溶胶光学厚度, 宁夏, 时空变化, 影响因素, MODIS

Abstract:

Atmospheric aerosols have significant impacts on climate change and regional air quality. Based on 1 km resolution aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from MODIS MAIAC Collection 6.1 product during 2003-2023, this study systematically explored the spatiotemporal variation patterns of AOD in Ningxia and its influencing factors by comprehensively applying methods such as Theil-Sen trend analysis, Mann-Kendall significance test, and Spearman correlation analysis. The results are as follows: (1) The AOD showed a distribution pattern of “high in the north and west, low in the south and east”. The AOD high-value areas are mainly distributed in the urban belt along the Yellow River and the Qingshui River Basin where human activities are intensive. (2) The annual average AOD presented a significant decreasing trend at a rate of -0.003 a^-1, with a particularly marked decline after reaching the peak in 2011. Over the past 21 years, the AOD has decreased significantly in 75.12% of the entire region, and the area with the most significant decrease (-0.006 a^-1) is highly consistent with the densely populated urban belt along the Yellow River, reflecting the effect of anthropogenic emissions reduction. (3) The AOD followed the pattern of “high in spring (0.33), falling in summer (0.27), low in autumn (0.20), and rising in winter (0.25)”, and the spring peak is mainly dominated by dust activities. (4) The interannual variation of AOD is synchronized with the reduction of anthropogenic particulate matter emissions, while on the seasonal scale, there is a dynamic shift of dominant factors, namely a significant positive correlation with wind speed in spring, a highly significant negative correlation with vegetation index in summer, and a negative correlation with wind speed in autumn.

Key words: aerosol optical depth, Ningxia, spatio-temporal variation, influencing factors, MODIS

中图分类号:

P407

魏嘉一, 佘璐, 赵红红, 王家琦, 闫琛, 赵志涛. 宁夏地区气溶胶光学厚度的时空变化特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2026, 44(2): 303-313.

WEI Jiayi, SHE Lu, ZHAO Honghong, WANG Jiaqi, YAN Chen, ZHAO Zhitao. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of Aerosol Optical Depth in Ningxia[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2026, 44(2): 303-313.

图/表 13

图1 宁夏土地利用类型

Fig.1 Land use type of Ningxia

表1 辅助数据表

Tab.1 List of auxiliary data used in the study

数据类别	数据名称	时、空分辨率	数据来源
土地利用类型数据	土地覆盖数据集	30 m	国家冰川冻土沙漠科学数据中心
NDVI数据	MODIS NDVI	逐月，1 km	美国国家航空航天局
ERA5气象再分析数据	降水量风速地表温度 T_{10 m}（10 m气温） T₂₅₀（250 hPa温度） T₅₀₀（500 hPa温度）	逐日， 0.1°×0.1°	欧洲中期天气预报中心
人为颗粒物排放数据	MEIC排放清单模型数据	逐月，省级	MEIC

图2 宁夏2003—2023年AOD均值空间分布

Fig.2 The spatial distribution of the multi-year average AOD from 2003 to 2023 in Ningxia

图3 2003—2023年宁夏季节平均的AOD空间分布

Fig.3 The spatial distribution of seasonal average AOD from 2003 to 2023 in Ningxia

图4 2003—2023年宁夏（a）及5市（b）AOD年际变化

Fig.4 Annual change of mean AOD in Ningxia （a） and its five cities （b） from 2003 to 2023

图5 2003—2023年宁夏AOD四季均值的年际变化

Fig.5 Annual change of seasonal mean AOD from 2003 to 2023 in Ningxia

表2 2003—2023年宁夏5市AOD四季均值

Tab.2 The seasonal average AOD of five cities in Ningxia from 2003 to 2023

城市	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
石嘴山市	0.33	0.31	0.24	0.28
银川市	0.34	0.29	0.24	0.29
中卫市	0.32	0.26	0.20	0.25
吴忠市	0.33	0.27	0.20	0.24
固原市	0.32	0.26	0.17	0.23

图6 2003—2023年宁夏（a）及5市（b）AOD月均值变化

Fig.6 Monthly change of mean AOD in Ningxia （a） and its five cities （b） from 2003 to 2023

图7 2003—2023年宁夏年均及季均AOD变化趋势空间分布（单位：a-1）

Fig.7 Spatial distribution of change trends of annual and seasonal mean AOD in Ningxia from 2003 to 2023 （Unit： a-1）

表3 宁夏2003—2023年AOD不同变化趋势的面积占比统计

Tab.3 Statistics on the area proportion with different change trends of AOD in Ningxia from 2003 to 2023

p值	${\beta }_{\mathrm{A}\mathrm{O}\mathrm{D}}$值	变化趋势	面积占比/%
p值	${\beta }_{\mathrm{A}\mathrm{O}\mathrm{D}}$值	变化趋势	全区	春	夏	秋	冬
≥0.05		变化不显著	24.80	68.76	4.18	92.58	75.82
<0.05	>0	增加	0.08	0.05	0.01	0.65	0.05
	-0.003~0	轻微降低	59.61	26.96	35.13	6.63	23.44
	<-0.003	显著降低	15.51	4.23	60.68	0.14	0.69

图8 2003—2020年宁夏PM10、PM2.5排放量及2003—2023年AOD逐年变化

Fig.8 The yearly variation of emissions of PM10 and PM2.5 from 2003 to 2020 and AOD from 2003 to 2023 in Ningxia

表4 不同季节AOD与其影响因子的Spearman相关系数

Tab.4 Spearman correlation coeffficients between AOD and its influencing factors in different seasons

季节	降水量	风速	地表温度	T_{10 m}	T_{250 hPa}-T_{10 m}	T_{500 hPa}-T_{10 m}	NDVI
春季	0.18	0.61**	-0.54*	-0.47*	0.47*	0.26	-0.65**
夏季	-0.36	0.31	-0.22	-0.32	-0.34	-0.33	-0.85***
秋季	0.18	-0.51*	-0.01	-0.08	0.08	0.14	-0.34
冬季	-0.25	0.14	-0.08	-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.45*

图9 2003—2023年宁夏四季AOD主导影响因子变化趋势

Fig.9 The change trends of dominant influencing factors of AOD in Ningxia from 2003 to 2023

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