2023/2024年厄尔尼诺事件对巴拿马运河区域干旱的影响分析

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-06-0841

干旱气象 ›› 2023, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 841-848.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-06-0841

2023/2024年厄尔尼诺事件对巴拿马运河区域干旱的影响分析

邓星辰¹^,²(), 于桐³, 沈佳依¹^,², 赵欣¹^,², 王林⁴, 郑飞¹()

1.中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境研究中心（ICCES），北京 100029
2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049
3.中国气象局气象宣传与科普中心，北京 100081
4.中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室（REC-TEA），北京 100029

收稿日期:2023-11-21 修回日期:2023-12-10 出版日期:2023-12-31 发布日期:2024-01-03
通讯作者: 郑飞（1979—），博士，研究员，主要从事短期气候预测、集合资料同化与集合预报方面研究。E-mail: zhengfei@mail.iap.ac.cn。
作者简介:邓星辰（2001—），女，硕士研究生，主要从事气候变化影响相关研究。E-mail: dengxingchen23@mails.ucas.ac.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42175045)

Impact of the 2023/2024 El Niño event on drought in the Panama Canal region

DENG Xingchen¹^,²(), YU Tong³, SHEN Jiayi¹^,², ZHAO Xin¹^,², WANG Lin⁴, ZHENG Fei¹()

1. International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences， Institute of Atmospheric Physics， Chinese Academy of Sciences， Beijing 100029， China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences， Beijing 100049， China
3. Meteorological Communication and Outreach Center， Beijing 100081， China
4. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate and Environment for Temperate East Asia， Institute of Atmospheric Physics， Beijing 100029， China

Received:2023-11-21 Revised:2023-12-10 Online:2023-12-31 Published:2024-01-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

ENSO（El Niño-Southern Oscillation）是短期气候年际变化中最强的信号，它对全球气候的短期变化有着重要影响。ENSO虽然发生在热带太平洋地区，但其影响却波及全球。例如，厄尔尼诺期间，巴拿马地区容易发生干旱，这将对巴拿马运河的航运产生重大影响。近期报道显示，自2023年春季以来，巴拿马运河地区一直受到干旱影响，造成运河水位异常偏低，出现近8 a来最严重的堵塞情况。针对这一极端现象，采用标准化降水蒸散发指数（Standardized Precipitation Evaportranspiration Index，SPEI）分析巴拿马运河区域的干旱状况，探究干旱累积效应在不同时间尺度的显著性。进一步从ENSO（以Niño3指数为代表）事件对巴拿马运河区域降水及蒸发的物理影响角度出发，深入分析该区域干旱成因，并基于最新的ENSO预测结果，预判巴拿马运河区域干旱在未来半年内仍将会维持并进一步加剧，对该区域应对未来干旱状况具有重要意义。

关键词: 厄尔尼诺事件, 巴拿马运河区域, 干旱指数, 干旱特征, 未来趋势

Abstract:

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest signal of interannual change of short-term climate, and it has an important impact on global short-term climate change. Although ENSO occurs in the tropical Pacific region, its effects are felt worldwide. For example, during the El Niño event, the Panama region is prone to drought, which will have a significant impact on shipping on the Panama Canal. Recent reports show that the Panama Canal region has been affected by drought since the spring of 2023, resulting in an abnormally low water level in the canal and the worst blockage in nearly 8 years. In view of this extreme phenomenon, the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is used to analyze the drought conditions in the Panama Canal region, and the significance of the cumulative effect of drought on different time scales is explored. Furthermore, from the perspective of the physical effects of ENSO (represented by Niño3 index) events on precipitation and evaporation in the Panama Canal region, this study analyzes the causes of drought in the Panama Canal region. According to the current ENSO prediction started from October 2023, it is predicted that the drought in the Panama Canal region will continue and further intensify in the following six months, which is of great significance for the region to cope with the future drought situation.

Key words: El Niño, the Panama Canal region, drought index, drought characteristics, future trends

中图分类号:

P461

邓星辰, 于桐, 沈佳依, 赵欣, 王林, 郑飞. 2023/2024年厄尔尼诺事件对巴拿马运河区域干旱的影响分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2023, 41(6): 841-848.

DENG Xingchen, YU Tong, SHEN Jiayi, ZHAO Xin, WANG Lin, ZHENG Fei. Impact of the 2023/2024 El Niño event on drought in the Panama Canal region[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2023, 41(6): 841-848.

图/表 6

图1 巴拿马运河区域（红色方框标记区域）2023年7月不同时间尺度（1、3、6、12、24、48个月）的SPEI分布

Fig.1 The distribution of SPEI with different time scales （1， 3， 6， 12， 24， and 48 months） in the Panama Canal region （red box area） in July 2023

图2 2023年3—10月巴拿马运河区域（红色方框标记区域）的逐月降水量距平（单位：mm）

Fig.2 The monthly precipitation anomaly from March to October 2023 in the Panama Canal region （red box area）（Unit： mm）

图3 2023年2—7月巴拿马运河区域（红色方框标记区域）逐月潜在蒸发量距平（单位：mm）

Fig.3 The monthly potential evapotranspiration anomaly from February to July 2023 in the Panama Canal region （red box area）（Unit： mm）

图4 1980—2023年巴拿马运河区域SPEI-3（a）与SPEI-6及Niño3指数（b）演变（SPEI-6、Niño3指数经过5点滑动平均）

Fig.4 The evolution of SPEI-3 (a) and SPEI-6 and Niño3 index (b) in the Panama Canal region during 1980-2023 (The SPEI-6 and Niño3 index after a 5-point sliding average)

图5 1980—2023年巴拿马运河区域降水量距平（9点滑动平均）和Niño3指数（9点滑动平均）演变

Fig.5 The evolution of the precipitation anomaly （9 points sliding） and the Niño3 index （9 points sliding） from 1980 to 2023 in the Panama Canal region

图6 2023年10月起报的未来12个月Niño3.4指数演变（中国科学院大气物理研究所ENSO集合预测系统预报；橙色区域为预报样本离散度，黑线为集合样本均值预报）

Fig.6 The evolution of predicted Niño3.4 index starting from October 2023 in the following 12 months （the predicted values from the IAP ENSO ensemble prediction system， the orange region for the forecasted ensemble spread， and the black line for the ensemble mean forecast）

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2023/2024年厄尔尼诺事件对巴拿马运河区域干旱的影响分析

Impact of the 2023/2024 El Niño event on drought in the Panama Canal region

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