干旱气象 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (6): 1014-1023.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-06-1014

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

台风“摩羯”路径转折预报和诊断分析

于慧珍1,2(), 马艳1,2(), 韩旭卿3, 时晓曚1,2   

  1. 1.山东省青岛市气象局,山东 青岛 266003
    2.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东 济南 250031
    3.国家气象中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2022-02-13 修回日期:2022-09-08 出版日期:2022-12-31 发布日期:2023-01-10
  • 通讯作者: 马艳
  • 作者简介:于慧珍(1988—),女,工程师,主要从事天气预报和灾害性天气研究. E-mail: yuhuizhen1990@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    青岛市气象局重点项目(2021qdqxz01);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2019PD002);青岛市气象局项目(2019qdqxhz01)

Forecast and diagnosis analysis of the turning of Typhoon Yagi track

YU Huizhen1,2(), MA Yan1,2(), HAN Xuqing3, SHI Xiaomeng1,2   

  1. 1. Qingdao Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province, Qingdao 266003, Shandong, China
    2. Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong Province, Jinan 250031, China
    3. National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2022-02-13 Revised:2022-09-08 Online:2022-12-31 Published:2023-01-10
  • Contact: MA Yan

摘要:

台风“摩羯”在2018年8月14日凌晨从安徽北部转向进入山东,业务预报模式对路径转折的预报存在较大偏差。本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)集合预报和ECMWF第五代大气再分析资料ERA5对“摩羯”路径转折进行预报和诊断分析。结果表明:台风路径转折受到大尺度引导气流和台风本身结构共同影响。ECMWF的大部分集合成员没有预报出台风路径转折,主要是因为预报的西太平洋副热带高压(简称“西太副高”)位置比实况偏西。在模式前期预报中,西太副高偏西的特征比台风实际转折时间早30 h,在业务预报中可以通过西太副高位置的订正对台风路径进行向东订正。在台风路径转折前,整层大气高能区和200 hPa辐散大值区分布与转折趋势一致,对台风路径转折预报具有指示意义。台风路径转折发生在整层大气高能区中心轴线和300 hPa强增温中心轴线方向变化约18 h后。轴线方向的变化对转折时间预报具有指示意义。尺度分析结果显示,上述物理量的风暴尺度分量对台风路径转折具有指示意义。

关键词: 台风路径转折, 诊断分析, 台风“摩羯”, 集合敏感性分析, 尺度分析

Abstract:

In the early morning of 14 August 2018, Typhoon Yagi turned northeastward and moved from northern Anhui to Shandong, and the errors in operational model forecasting of the typhoon track turning were large. The turning of Typhoon Yagi track is forecasted and diagnosed based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasts and the fifth generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data. The results show that the turning of typhoon track was attributed to the combination of the large-scale steering flow and the typhoon structure. The forecasted western Pacific subtropical high was located to the west of that in the observation. As a result, most of the ECMWF ensemble members failed to predict the turning of Typhoon Yagi track. In the earlier forecast, the characteristic that the forecasted western Pacific subtropical high was located to west of the observation was 30 h ahead of the turning of the typhoon track. The forecast of the typhoon track can be corrected by the western Pacific subtropical high location correction. Before the typhoon turned, the distribution of the large values regions of the vertically averaged atmospheric energy and the divergence at 200 hPa was consistent with the turning path of typhoon, which has significant meaning for the forecast of typhoon turning. The axis direction of the large center of the vertically averaged atmospheric energy and the strong warming center at 300 hPa changed about 18 h ahead of the typhoon turning, which has significant meaning for the forecast of typhoon turning time. Scale analysis shows that the storm-scale component of the variables mentioned above has significant meaning for the forecast of typhoon turning.

Key words: turning of typhoon track, diagnosis analysis, Typhoon Yagi, ensemble sensitivity analysis, scale analysis

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