干旱气象 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 415-423.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-03-0415

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于CMIP6的福建省极端气温预估

陈笑晨1(), 唐振飞1(), 陈锡宽2, 郑潮宇1, 李欣欣1, 杨婷3   

  1. 1.福建省气候中心,福建 福州 350008
    2.江西省吉安市气象局,江西 吉安 343006
    3.福建省气象服务中心,福建 福州 350008
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-26 修回日期:2021-12-27 出版日期:2022-06-30 发布日期:2022-06-28
  • 通讯作者: 唐振飞
  • 作者简介:陈笑晨(1989—),男,硕士,工程师,主要从事气候预测和气候变化研究.E-mail: 930571818@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    福建省气象局开放式基金项目“SSPs情景下福建省未来极端事件的模拟与预估”(2021KX01);福建省气象局开放式气象科学研究基金项目(2020K01)

Projection of extreme temperature in Fujian based on CMIP6 output

CEHN Xiaochen1(), TANG Zhenfei1(), CHEN Xikuan2, ZHENG Chaoyu1, LI Xinxin1, YANG Ting3   

  1. 1. Fujian Provincial Climate Center, Fuzhou 350008,China
    2. Ji’an Meteorological Bureau of Jiangxi Province, Ji’an 343006,Jiangxi,China
    3. Fujian Provincial Meteorological Service Center, Fuzhou 350008,China
  • Received:2021-08-26 Revised:2021-12-27 Online:2022-06-30 Published:2022-06-28
  • Contact: TANG Zhenfei

摘要:

基于第六阶段耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, CMIP6)模 拟数据和高分辨率逐日格点观测数据,分别采用分位数映射法和泰勒图对福建省极端气温指数模 拟值进行订正和评估,发现在历史参照期(1991—2010年)订正后的各极端气温指数模拟值与观测值更加接近。在此基础上,分析了SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下福建省21世纪近期(2021—2040年)、中期(2051—2070年)和末期(2081—2100年)订正后的极端气温指数相对于历史参照期的时空变化特征。从时间变化来看,21世纪各时期,全省平均极端气温指数呈现升高趋势,且随着时间推移增幅不断加大。从空间变化来看,极端最高气温TXx呈现西北内陆增幅大、东南沿海增幅小的趋势,极端最低气温TNn空间分布与TXx类似,增幅略小,夏季日数Su增量在福建西南部为大值区,暖昼日数TX90p在福建东南部增幅最大。采用广义极值(generalized extreme value, GEV)分布研究了TXx重现期变化,发现SSP2-4.5情景下,21世纪3个时期增温较为匀速,而SSP5-8.5情景下增温呈加速趋势。在SSP5-8.5情景下,历史参照期20 a一遇的极端最高气温在21世纪末期每年都可能发生。

关键词: SSPs情景, 极端气温指数, 气候变化, GEV分布

Abstract:

Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulation data and high resolution daily grid observation data, quantile mapping method and Taylor diagram were used to correct and evaluate the simulation values of extreme temperature index,respectively. It was found that corrected simulation value of each extreme temperature index was closer to the observation during historical reference period (1991-2010).The spatial-temporal variation characteristic of extreme temperature indies in near-term, mid-term and late-term of the 21st century relative to historical reference period in Fujian Province under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were analyzed. From the perspective of temporal variation, in each period of the 21st century, the extreme temperature indices in Fujian Province showed an increasing trend and the incremental value increased over time.From the perspective of spatial variation, the extreme maximum temperature (TXx) showed a trend of increasing more in northwest inland area and less in southeast coastal area.The spatial distribution of extreme minimum temperature (TNn) was similar to that of TXx, but the warming rate was slightly smaller. The summer days (Su) increased more in the southwest of Fujian, while the warm days (TX90p) increased faster in the southeast area. Based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, it was found that under SSP2-4.5 scenario, the temperature increase in three periods in the 21st century was relatively uniform and stable, while under SSP5-8.5 scenario, the temperature increase showed an accelerating trend. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, TXx of 20-year return period in the historical period was likely to occur every year in late-term of the 21st century.

Key words: SSPs scenarios, extreme temperature indices, climate change, GEV distribution

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