中国北方旱区陆地水储量变化特征及其归因分析

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-02-0169

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于重力反演与气候实验(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE)卫星观测数据分析中国北方旱区近20 a的陆地水储量变化,并结合多种观测和模式数据分析其变化特征和原因。结果表明,2002—2020年中国北方旱区陆地水储量以每年17.80±1.72 Gt的净速率下降。地下水、根区土壤水和表层土壤水均不同程度减少。归因分析发现:在中国北方旱区,地表升温和人为耗水等因素造成蒸散大量增加。蒸散的负向贡献超过同期降水的正向贡献,使得区域净水储量持续减少,区域水资源压力攀升。因此,需要在中国北方旱区采取更有效的节水措施和建立全面的水资源监测系统。

关键词: 陆地水储量, 中国北方旱区, 降水, 蒸散

Abstract:

Based on GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite products, the TWS changes were calculated in drylands of northern China during the past two decades. And on this basis, the characteristics and causes of TWS changes were explored by using multi-source observations and model simulations. The results show that TWS in drylands of northern China decreased with a rate of 17.80±1.72 Gt per year during 2002-2020, which was also accompanied by various degrees of reduction in groundwater, root zone soil moisture and surface soil moisture. In drylands of northern China, the effects, such as climate warming and human water consumption, caused a substantial increase of evapotranspiration. The negative contributions of evapotranspiration overpassed the concurrently positive contributions of precipitation, and thus led to the decrease in TWS and increase in regional water stress.

Key words: TWS, drylands of northern China, precipitation, evapotranspiration

中图分类号:

P344

安琳莉, 黄建平, 任钰, 张国龙. 中国北方旱区陆地水储量变化特征及其归因分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(2): 169-178.

AN Linli, HUANG Jianping, REN Yu, ZHANG Guolong. Characteristic and cause analysis of terrestrial water storage change in drylands of northern China[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(2): 169-178.

图/表 9

图1 基于1961—1990年AI<0.65确定的中国北方旱区

Fig.1 The categorized drylands in northern China based on the AI<0.65 from 1961 to 1990

图2 基于JPL-M(a、b)、JPL-SH(c、d)、CSR-M(e、f)和CSR-SH(g、h)产品的中国北方旱区2002年4月至2020年7月TWS气候倾向率空间分布(a、c、e、g,单位:mm·a-1)和去除季节循环的TWS区域总量距平时间序列(b、d、f、h) [黑点表示该地气候倾向率通过α=0.05显著性检验(下同)]

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of climate tendency rate of TWS (Unit: mm·a-1) and time series of deseasonalized TWS regional total amount anomaly from April 2002 to July 2020 in drylands of northern China based on JPL-M (a, b), JPL-SH (c, d), CSR-M (e, f) and CSR-M (g, h) products (Black dots in the maps denote the regions where the climate tendency rate of TWS passed the 0.05 significance test (the same as below))

图3 4种GRACE产品去除季节循环的TWS区域总量距平的集合平均 (阴影代表两倍标准差)

Fig.3 Ensemble mean of anomaly of deseasonalized TWS regional total amount of 4 GRACE products (The shaded denotes the two standard deviation)

图4 2003年2月至2020年7月中国北方旱区地下水(a)、根区土壤水(b)、表层土壤水(c)气候倾向率(单位:mm·a-1)空间分布(a、b、c)及区域总量距平时间序列(d)

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of climate tendency rate (Unit: mm·a-1) of groundwater (a), root zone soil moisture (b) and surface soil moisture (c) from February 2003 to July 2020 in drylands of northern China and time series of regional total anomaly (d)

图5 中国北方旱区2002—2020年与1980—2020年平均年降水量差值(a,单位:mm)、差值占1980—2020平均年降水量百分比(b,单位:%)的空间分布和1980—2020年平均降水量年际变化(c)

Fig.5 The spatial distribution of difference in the average annual precipitation between the period of 2002-2020 and the period of 1980-2020 (a, Unit: mm), the difference as a percentage of the average annual precipitation during 1980-2020 (b, Unit: %) and the inter-annual variation of average precipitation during 1980-2020 (c) in drylands of northern China

图6 中国北方旱区2002—2020年去除季节循环的月平均气温变化

Fig.6 The variation of deseasonalized monthly average temperature during 2002-2020 in drylands of northern China

图7 中国北方旱区2002—2020年与1980—2020年平均年蒸散量差值(a,单位:mm)、差值占1980—2020平均年蒸散量的百分比(b)的空间分布和1980—2020年平均蒸散量年际变化(c)

Fig.7 The spatial distribution of difference of the average annual evapotranspiration between the period of 2002-2020 and the period of 1980-2020 (a, Unit: mm), the difference as a percentage of the average annual evapotranspiration during 1980-2020 (b) and the inter-annual variation of average evapotranspiration during 1980-2020 (c) in drylands of northern China

图8 1980—2014年中国北方旱区平均径流年际变化

Fig.8 The inter-annual variation of average runoff during 1980-2014 in drylands of northern China

图9 中国北方旱区2002—2016年与1980—2016年平均年人为耗水量差值的空间分布(a,单位:mm)和1980—2016年平均人为耗水量年际变化(b)

Fig.9 The spatial distribution of difference of the average annual human water consumption between the period of 2002-2016 and the period of 1980-2016 (a, Unit: mm) and the inter-annual variation of average human water consumption during 1980-2016 (b) in drylands of northern China

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