基于短期历史资料的河西地区太阳辐射预报订正研究

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-01-0125

干旱气象 ›› 2022, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 125-134.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-01-0125

基于短期历史资料的河西地区太阳辐射预报订正研究

韩自奋¹(), 颜鹏程²(), 李扬³, 吕清泉⁴, 张铁军⁵, 边宏伟³, 王永政³, 张莉²

1.国网甘肃省电力公司电力调度中心,甘肃兰州 730070
2.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰州 730020
3.兰州大方电子有限责任公司,甘肃兰州 730050
4.国网甘肃省电力公司电力科学研究院,甘肃兰州 730070
5.甘肃省白银市气象局,甘肃白银 730900

收稿日期:2020-11-30 修回日期:2021-08-12 出版日期:2022-02-28 发布日期:2022-02-28
通讯作者: 颜鹏程
作者简介:韩自奋(1976— ),男,甘肃民乐人,博士,正研级高级工程师,主要从事水电及新能源调度交易研究. E-mail: 7638403@qq.com。
基金资助:
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院开放基金(LPCC2019002);国家自然科学基金(42005056);国家自然科学基金(42005058);国家电网公司总部科技项目(SGHE000KXJS1700074);甘肃省气象局“西北区域数值预报创新团队”共同资助(GSQXCXTD-2020-02)

Study on correction of solar radiation forecast in Hexi region of Gansu Province based on short-term historical data

HAN Zifen¹(), YAN Pengcheng²(), LI Yang³, LÜ Qingquan⁴, ZHANG Tiejun⁵, BIAN Hongwei³, WANG Yongzheng³, ZHANG Li²

1. Power Dispatching Center of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730070, China
2. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province / Key Laboratoryof Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration,Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China
3. Lanzhou Dafang Electronics Co., Ltd, Lanzhou 730050, China
4. Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730070, China
5. Baiyin Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province, Baiyin 730900, Gansu, China

Received:2020-11-30 Revised:2021-08-12 Online:2022-02-28 Published:2022-02-28
Contact: YAN Pengcheng

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于数值模式的太阳辐射预报往往存在一定的系统性偏差,AVT订正方法能够有效降低预报偏差,本文利用该方法对甘肃河西地区两个光伏电站的太阳辐射预报结果进行订正。结果表明:(1)订正前预报偏差呈现明显的“先增加、后减小”日变化特征,订正后日变化特征不明显,并且订正前预报偏差与观测值线性关系显著,订正后线性关系减弱(相关系数降低、拟合优度降低);(2)太阳辐射存在明显的年变化特征,其预报偏差春季最高,其次为夏季,冬季最小,订正后不同季节的预报偏差均降低,春季和夏季降低较为明显。

关键词: 河西地区, 新能源, 太阳辐射预报, 订正

Abstract:

There are some systematic biases in prediction of solar radiation based on numerical models, the AVT method has been verified to reduce the prediction bias effectively. The AVT correction method was used to modify the forecasted solar radiation in two photovoltaic power plants in Hexi area of Gansu Province. The results state: (1) Before correction the forecast bias presented obviously diurnal variation with increase first and then decrease, while it wasn’t obvious after correction. There was a strong linear relationship between forecast deviation of solar radiation and observed values before correction, while it got weak after correction (the correlation coefficient and good fitting degree decreased). (2) There was obviously annual change characteristic of solar radiation with the highest forecast bias in spring, followed by summer, autumn and winter. After correction, its forecast bias was reduced in four seasons, especially in spring and summer.

Key words: Hexi area of Gansu Province, renewable, solar radiation forecast, correction

中图分类号:

P422

韩自奋, 颜鹏程, 李扬, 吕清泉, 张铁军, 边宏伟, 王永政, 张莉. 基于短期历史资料的河西地区太阳辐射预报订正研究[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(1): 125-134.

HAN Zifen, YAN Pengcheng, LI Yang, LÜ Qingquan, ZHANG Tiejun, BIAN Hongwei, WANG Yongzheng, ZHANG Li. Study on correction of solar radiation forecast in Hexi region of Gansu Province based on short-term historical data[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(1): 125-134.

图/表 11

表1 甘肃新能源高分辨率数值预报系统参数化方案

Tab.1 Parameterization scheme of GREHS

积云对流参数化	陆面过程参数化	边界层参数化	云微物理过程参数化	辐射过程参数化
积云对流参数化	陆面过程参数化	边界层参数化	云微物理过程参数化	长波	短波
Kain-Fritsch	NOAH-LSM	ACM2	WSM 6	RRTM	Dudhia

图1 A站(a、c)与B站(b、d)太阳辐射观测资料(a、b)及处理后观测资料(c、d)随时间(日序)变化 (红色点线是补充的缺测值)

Fig.1 The variation of observed solar radiation before (a, b) and after data processing (c, d) at the station A (a, c) and the station B (b, d) (The red dot lines are supplementary missing values)

图2 基于历史资料的太阳辐射预报结果订正方法示意图

Fig.2 Schematic diagram of correction method about forecast values of solar radiation based on historical data

图3 观测(a)和预报(b)的太阳辐射随时间变化及局部观测资料和预报结果对比(c),观测资料和预报结果累计时长(d)

Fig.3 The variation of observed (a) and predicted (b) solar radiation and their fragments (c), the cumulative duration of observed and predicted solar radiation (d)

图4 不同时刻A站(a、c)与B站(b、d)观测和预报太阳辐射的年平均值(a、b)和年标准差(c、d)

Fig.4 The diurnal variation of annual mean (a, b) and annual standard deviation (c, d) of observed and predicted solar radiation at the station A (a, c) and the station B (b, d)

图5 不同历史资料长度下订正后的预报结果与观测值的相关系数(a)和订正前后预报值的平均偏差(b)

Fig.5 Correlation coefficient between predictions after correction and observations (a), average relative error of predictions before and after correction (b) based on historical data with different days

图6 09:00—18:00 A站太阳辐射观测值和其订正前后预报值(a)及太阳辐射订正前后的预报偏差(b),太阳辐射订正前后预报偏差率及其变化(c)

Fig.6 The observations and forecasted values before and after correction (a) and solar radiation forecast deviation before and after correction (b), solar radiation forecast deviation rate before and after correction and its variation (c) at the station A from 09:00 BST to 18:00 BST

图7 A站太阳辐射观测值与订正前后预报值(a)及预报偏差(b)之间的关系

Fig.7 Linear relationships between observed solar radiation and forecasted values before and after correction (a) and solar radiation forecast deviation (b) at the station A

图8 09:00—18:00 B站太阳辐射观测值和其订正前后预报值(a)及太阳辐射订正前后的预报偏差(b),太阳辐射订正前后预报偏差率及其变化(c)

Fig.8 The observations and forecasted values before and after correction (a) and solar radiation forecast deviation before and after correction (b), solar radiation forecast deviation rate before and after correction and its variation (c) at the station B from 09:00 BST to 18:00 BST

图9 B站太阳辐射观测值与订正前后预报值(a)及预报偏差(b)之间的关系

Fig.9 Linear relationships between observed solar radiation and forecasted values before and after correction (a) and solar radiation forecast deviation (b) at the station B

图10 A站(a、c、e、g)与B站(b、d、f、h)春(a、b)、夏(c、d)、秋(e、f)、冬(g、h)季逐时太阳辐射预报偏差

Fig.10 Hourly solar radiation forecast deviation in spring (a, b), summer (c, d), autumn (e, f) and winter (g, h) at the station A (a, c, e, g) and the station B (b, d, f, h)

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基于短期历史资料的河西地区太阳辐射预报订正研究

Study on correction of solar radiation forecast in Hexi region of Gansu Province based on short-term historical data

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