• CN 62-1175/P
• ISSN 1006-7639
• 双月刊
• 中国科技核心期刊
• 中国学术期刊综合评价数据库统计源期刊
• 中文科技期刊数据库收录期刊

• 论文 •

### 湖陆山地复杂地形下近地层风速预报研究

1. 江西省气象科学研究所，江西南昌330046
• 出版日期:2019-06-28 发布日期:2019-07-01
• 作者简介:吴琼（1984— ），女，江西赣县人，高级工程师，硕士，现从事气候资源研究. E-mail:zhanghen11111@163.com。
• 基金资助:
江西省科技厅项目(20151BBG70052)、武汉暴雨研究所科研业务重点项目（IHRKYYW201806）和江西省气象局重点项目“大城市风场、温度场精细化预报技术研究与应用”共同资助

### Near Ground Wind Speed Prediction Under Complex Topography with Lake, Plain and Mountains

WU Qiong, XU Weimin

1. Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Science Institute, Nanchang 330046, China
• Online:2019-06-28 Published:2019-07-01

Abstract: Taken the complex topography with lake, plain and mountains in Poyang Lake and its surrounding as a test area, the near ground wind speed with high temporal and spatial resolution was simulated under two boundary layer parameterized schemes (MRF and MYJ) of WRF model in 2010, and combined the observation data from three wind towers, the prediction results were tested. The results show that the effect of wind speed prediction at 70 m height by WRF model under two boundary layer parameterized schemes was well in complex underlying of Poyang Lake, the temporal change of predicted wind speed was in good agreement with the observations, and the prediction of wind speed with boundary layer of MRF scheme was slightly better than that of MYJ scheme. The influence of terrain on near ground wind speed prediction was obvious in Poyang Lake area, and the prediction of wind speed at 70 m height in Jishan with flat terrain was the best, while that in Shizishan with the most complex terrain was poor relatively. The forecast effect of wind speed with different levels was different. The forecast effect of 5-25 m·s-1 wind speed section was better than that of 0-5 m·s-1 wind speed section. The contribution rate of phase deviation was 60% and above as the main source influencing the error of wind speed prediction near surface layer of Poyang Lake area, while that of system deviation and amplitude deviation was small, so the effect of wind speed prediction could be improved to some extent through linear correction to system deviation and amplitude deviation.

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