干旱气象 ›› 2019, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 384-.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

湖陆山地复杂地形下近地层风速预报研究

究吴琼,徐卫民   

  1. 江西省气象科学研究所,江西南昌330046
  • 出版日期:2019-06-28 发布日期:2019-07-01
  • 作者简介:吴琼(1984— ),女,江西赣县人,高级工程师,硕士,现从事气候资源研究. E-mail:zhanghen11111@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    江西省科技厅项目(20151BBG70052)、武汉暴雨研究所科研业务重点项目(IHRKYYW201806)和江西省气象局重点项目“大城市风场、温度场精细化预报技术研究与应用”共同资助

 Near Ground Wind Speed Prediction Under Complex Topography with Lake, Plain and Mountains

WU Qiong, XU Weimin   

  1. Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Science Institute, Nanchang 330046, China
  • Online:2019-06-28 Published:2019-07-01

摘要: 以鄱阳湖区典型湖陆山地复杂地形为试验区域,采用WRF模式MRF和MYJ两种边界层参数化方案,对2010年该区域近地层风速进行高时空分辨率预报,并结合3个测风塔观测资料对预报结果进行检验。结果表明:WRF模式对鄱阳湖区70 m高度风速预报效果较好,预报值能够较好地反映近地层风速变化,且边界层MRF方案预报效果略好于MYJ方案。地形对近地层风速预报影响明显,地形相对平坦的吉山预报效果最好,而地形最为复杂的狮子山预报效果相对较差。不同强度的近地层风速预报效果差异较大,5~25 m·s-1风速段预报效果明显优于0~5 m·s-1风速段。位相偏差是造成鄱阳湖区近地层风速预报误差的主要来源,其贡献率在60%以上,而系统偏差和振幅偏差的误差贡献率相对较小,通过线性订正方法可在一定程度上提高该区域风速预报效果。

关键词: WRF模式, 参数化方案, 风速预报, 效果评估

Abstract: Taken the complex topography with lake, plain and mountains in Poyang Lake and its surrounding as a test area, the near ground wind speed with high temporal and spatial resolution was simulated under two boundary layer parameterized schemes (MRF and MYJ) of WRF model in 2010, and combined the observation data from three wind towers, the prediction results were tested. The results show that the effect of wind speed prediction at 70 m height by WRF model under two boundary layer parameterized schemes was well in complex underlying of Poyang Lake, the temporal change of predicted wind speed was in good agreement with the observations, and the prediction of wind speed with boundary layer of MRF scheme was slightly better than that of MYJ scheme. The influence of terrain on near ground wind speed prediction was obvious in Poyang Lake area, and the prediction of wind speed at 70 m height in Jishan with flat terrain was the best, while that in Shizishan with the most complex terrain was poor relatively. The forecast effect of wind speed with different levels was different. The forecast effect of 5-25 m·s-1 wind speed section was better than that of 0-5 m·s-1 wind speed section. The contribution rate of phase deviation was 60% and above as the main source influencing the error of wind speed prediction near surface layer of Poyang Lake area, while that of system deviation and amplitude deviation was small, so the effect of wind speed prediction could be improved to some extent through linear correction to system deviation and amplitude deviation.

Key words: WRF model, parameterization scheme, wind forecast, effect evaluation

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