干旱气象 ›› 2019, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 477-.

• 业务技术应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

西藏高原一次冰雹天气云降水模式预报产品检验

刘俊卿1,央金卓玛1,廖晓坤1,史月琴2,杨刚1,强德厚3,刘端阳4   

  1. 1.西藏自治区人工影响天气中心,西藏拉萨850000;2.中国气象局人工影响天气中心,北京100081;
    3.西藏自治区拉萨市气象局,西藏拉萨850000;4.江苏省气象台,江苏南京210008
  • 出版日期:2019-06-28 发布日期:2019-07-01
  • 通讯作者: 强德厚(1973— ),男,甘肃庆阳人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事气象探测工作. E-mail:391104833@qq.com。
  • 作者简介:刘俊卿(1972— ),女,河北石家庄人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事人工影响天气方面研究. E-mail:365273628@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0203303)资助

Verification of Cloud Precipitation Model Forecast Products During a Hailstorm Process in Tibet Plateau

LIU Junqing1, Yangjinzhuoma1, LIAO Xiaokun1, SHI Yueqin2, YANG Gang1, QIANG Dehou3, LIU Duanyang4   

  1. 1. Weather Modification Center of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850000, China;
    2. Weather Modification Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. Lhasa Meteorological Bureau of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850000, China;
    4. Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008, China
  • Online:2019-06-28 Published:2019-07-01

摘要: 利用FY-2G卫星反演云特征参量产品、MICAPS高空和地面形势场、逐小时地面降水和探空数据等资料,从云的宏观、微观结构及垂直结构和降水方面对2016年6月22日19:00—20:00拉萨市短时冰雹天气发生期间的GRAPES_CAMS云降水模式预报结果进行高原地区适用性检验。结果表明:(1)模式能够预报西藏地区的降水落区分布,对强降水中心和降水强度的预报存在一定偏差;(2)模式能较好地预报云系发展演变,在云系移速、移向上预报结果与实况基本一致,对云系发展旺盛程度的预报有一定偏差;(3)模式能较准确地预报高原对流云宏观特征,对流云的垂直发展预报结果比实况弱,云顶高度偏低1.0~2.0 km,云顶温度偏高10~20 ℃;(4)在云垂直结构特征上,模式预报与卫星、高空监测较为吻合,云的冷暖性质、垂直结构、特征温度层高度与实况接近。

关键词: 冰雹天气, 云降水模式, 西藏高原, 检验

Abstract: Based on FY-2G satellite retrieve products, the normal upper level and surface data from MICAPS, houly precipitation and L-band sounding data, a hailstorm in Lhasa of Tibet Plateau from 19:00 BST to 20:00 BST on 22 June 2016 was examined. The results are as follows: (1) The cloud precipitation model could predict the precipitation area of Tibet, but there were some deviations for heavy precipitation center and rainfall intensity. (2) The evolution of clouds could be predicted truly by this model, the simulations of clouds’ moving direction and velocity were basically consistent with the satellite monitoring. (3) The model could forecast the macroscopic characteristics of convective cloud in the plateau well, although the vertical development of the convective clouds was weaker than that of the retrieval based on FY-2G satellite data. The deviation of the cloud top height was about 1.0-2.0 km and that of the cloud top temperature was about 10-20 ℃. (4) The prediction of the cloud vertical characteristics was in good agreement with monitoring results by FY-2G satellite and the upper-air sounding. The property of the cloud vertical structure and the height of characteristic temperature layer were close to the observations.

Key words:  hailstorm, cloud precipitation model, Tibet Plateau, verification

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