干旱气象 ›› 2019, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 183-197.DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2019)-02-0183

• 综述 •    下一篇

美国干旱监测预测业务发展及其科学挑战

王芝兰, 周甘霖, 张宇, 李耀辉, 董安祥   

  1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,
    中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730020
  • 出版日期:2019-04-30 发布日期:2019-04-30
  • 通讯作者: 周甘霖(1986— ),男,助理研究员,主要从事数值预报工作. E-mail: zhougl@mail.iamcma.cn。
  • 作者简介:王芝兰(1984— ),女,甘肃兰州人,副研究员,主要从事气候变化与陆面过程研究. E-mail: wangzhlan2008@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506001)、甘肃省气象局气象科研项目(GSMAMs2017-11)和中科院寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室开放基金(LPCC2017002)共同资助

Progresses and Challenges on Drought Monitoring and Forecast in the United States

WANG Zhilan, ZHOU Ganlin, ZHANG Yu, LI Yaohui, DONG Anxiang   

  1. Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, 
    Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,
    Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China
  • Online:2019-04-30 Published:2019-04-30

摘要: 干旱是全球普遍存在的对人类影响最为严重的一种自然灾害。近百年气候显著变暖和社会快速发展,加剧了干旱的影响程度,增强了干旱灾害的风险,给全球农业、水资源、生态环境安全以及社会可持续发展造成巨大威胁。提高干旱监测和早期预警技术是应对、管理干旱以及减轻干旱脆弱性的基础。本文介绍了近年来美国在干旱监测、预测业务及研究方面取得的新进展,回顾了美国在区域和全球尺度下干旱监测及数值模式预报系统的发展,重点概述了干旱科学研究与技术进步,并结合2016年美国政府部门的抗旱任务书,讨论了干旱监测和预测面临的机遇与挑战,为我国干旱监测与预测发展提供新视角。

关键词: 干旱监测, 干旱预测, 进展, 美国

Abstract: Drought is the most severe natural hazard affecting on human society and it exists generally in the whole global. In recent a century, the climate warming and society developing exacerbated the degree of drought influence and risk, which brought a great threat to global agriculture, water resource, ecological environment security and society sustainable development. It is the basis of fighting and managing drought and reducing drought vulnerability to improve the drought monitoring and early warning skill. In this paper, we introduce the new progress of drought monitoring and prediction operation and research in the United States in recent years, and provide an overview of the development of regional and global drought monitoring and prediction systems (DMAPS). It focuses on the scientific researches and technology improvement of drought. At last, the opportunities and challenges of drought monitoring and prediction are discussed referring to NOAA Interagency Drought task Force in 2016, which is beneficial to provide a new perspective for drought monitoring and forecast in China.

Key words: drought monitor, drought prediction, progresses, the United States

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