关键词: 东北冬季气温, 前冬, 后冬, 北极涛动

Abstract:

Based on the monthly data of air temperature from 27 weather stations in Northeast China, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and AO index from NOAA, the variation of air temperature in winter of Northeast China was investigated by using EOF analysis and correlation analysis in the recent 53 years. The results are as follows: (1) The first EOF modes in both early and late winter presented a regional consistent variation, and the second EOF modes in both early and late winter depicted a seesaw pattern with a positive (negative) anomaly in the northeast and a negative (positive) anomaly in the southwest of Northeast China, and in fact,  the seesaw pattern was in the majority. (2) It was found that there was a positive correlation between the seesaw pattern of air temperature in early winter and Arctic Oscillation-like teleconnection pattern. (3) There was a significant positive correlation between the Arctic Oscillation in November and the seesaw pattern of temperature anomalies in early winter. As the Arctic Oscillation in November was positive (negative), the warm (cold) anomaly occurred in the northeast, and the cold (warm) anomaly occurred in the southwest of Northeast China. Hence, the Arctic Oscillation in November may serve as one of predictors for temperature prediction in Northeast China.

Key words: air temperature anomaly, winter, Northeast China, Arctic Oscillation (AO)