干旱气象 ›› 2015, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 45-51.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于GIS的河南省冬小麦晚霜冻风险评估与区划

李军玲1, 2张 弘1, 2曹淑超1, 2   

  1. 1. 中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室, 河南 郑州 450003;
    2. 河南省气象科学研究所, 河南 郑州 450003
  • 出版日期:2015-02-28 发布日期:2015-02-28

Assessment and Zonation of Late Frost Injury of Winter Wheat in He nan Province Based on GIS

LI Junling1, 2ZHANG Hong1, 2CAO Shuchao1, 2
  

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Ensuring and Applied Technique,China Meteorological Administration /Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450003,China;
    2. Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003
  • Online:2015-02-28 Published:2015-02-28

摘要:

为了了解河南省冬小麦晚霜冻的发生规律,以便及时采取应对措施进行防灾减灾,从而实现冬小麦高产稳产,本文选取冬小麦晚霜冻有害积寒和频度(危险性)、冬小麦种植面积(暴露性)、灌耕比和单位提灌面积机井数(脆弱性)等风险评价指标建立风险评价体系,通过层次分析法确定冬小麦晚霜冻风险评价指标权重,构建冬小麦晚霜冻风险评价模型。基于1984~2013年气候数据对河南省冬小麦晚霜冻进行风险评价,根据冬小麦晚霜冻风险评价模型,应用ArcGIS进行栅格计算,得到河南省冬小麦晚霜冻风险区划图。结果显示:商丘东部、周口、漯河、驻马店大部、信阳和南阳局部晚霜冻风险指数高,在0.289~0.483之间,为晚霜冻高风险区;而三门峡、洛阳、济源、焦作以及郑州、安阳鹤壁、新乡等地区大部晚霜冻风险指数较低,在0.123以下,为晚霜冻低风险区。最后根据历史统计资料计算的晚霜冻指数和本文研究结果对河南省冬小麦晚霜冻风险区划图的提取值进行相关分析,相关系数达到0.78,表明本文所得到的河南省冬小麦晚霜冻风险区划结果和历史统计结果相符。

关键词: 层次分析法, 危险性, 暴露性, 脆弱性, 风险评估模型, 有害积寒

Abstract:

In order to master the occurrence regularity of winter wheat late frost injury in He nan Province,and take timely measures for disaster prevention and reduction,this paper firstly selects these risk evaluation indexes including the winter wheat late frost harmful chilling accumulation and frequency (risk) ,the planting area of winter wheat (exposure) , and the ratio of irrigated and tillable field area,well number per unit area (vulnerability)to establish risk evaluation system,and then determines the weight of winter wheat late frost risk evaluation index by using analytic hierarchy process,finally the winter wheat late frost freeze risk evaluation model was built. Based on 1984 - 2013 climate data, the late frost of winter wheat in He nan Province was evaluated by using the risk assessment model,and according to the winter wheat late frost risk evaluation model for grid computing in ArcGIS,the winter wheat late frost risk zoning map in He nan Province was obtained. The results show that the late frost risk index was high which ranged from 0. 289 to 0. 483 in the eastern Shangqiu,Zhoukou,Luohe,most part of Zhumadian,some part of Xinyang and Nanyang,while in most of Sanmenxia, Luoyang,Jiyuan,Jiaozuo,Zhengzhou,Anyang,Hebi,Xinxiang and other areas the late frost risk index was less than 0.123. Finally, the correlation analysis was carried out between the late frost index caculated by using historical statistical data and the results of this study,and the correlation coefficient was 0.78,which showed that the winter wheat late frost risk zoning results in He nan Province were consistent with the historical statistics.

Key words: analytic hierarchy process, risk;exposure, vulnerability, risk evaluation model, harmful chilling accumulation